4 free agents the Blue Jays should not bother getting into a bidding war over

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When it comes to MLB free agency, it gives a ballclub the distinct opportunity to make key additions to their roster without having to give up any assets, other than of course the money that goes with it. With multiple positions to address this offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays will certainly be active participants in this year’s free agent market. But at the same time, to be successful and be able to get the best value in their deals, they should make sure they don’t get into a bidding war with other teams that could essentially lead to an overpay on their player of interest. Otherwise, resources could dry up quickly, leaving them in a bind to address other needs.

Here, we take a look at four free agents that are on the Blue Jays’ radar that they shouldn’t be blowing the bank on if they intend to compete with other teams for their services.

Shohei Ohtani

Perhaps the most coveted player this offseason, Shohei Ohtani represents the grand prize of this year’s free agency. The addition of Ohtani to any ballclub can instantly put the team into contention status, due to his ability to provide valuable contributions both as a hitter and a pitcher. In effect, it feels like one is getting a 2-for-1 combo for one great price.

With the Jays in need of starting pitching help along with a replacement for Brandon Belt in the designated hitter spot, Ohtani would provide a significant upgrade to both positions as a result. Even though the pitching version of Ohtani probably won’t be available until 2025 when he fully recovers from his surgery, he is worth the wait.

However, with many teams in the hunt for Ohtani, there is a high possibility that whoever ends up signing him, it will be beyond the projected $500M that he's regularly predicted to get. If he maintains the type of production he has been putting up the past few years, he would be worth it. But the problem is he has now undergone two major elbow surgeries on his pitching arm in a span of five years. If health indeed becomes an issue for Ohtani, any big investment in him could potentially put a team in jeopardy, as a fair chunk of a team’s budget would be tied into his contract. As a result, the Jays can try for Ohtani, but shouldn’t go overboard into luring him to Toronto.

Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger is perhaps the biggest name in terms of position players hitting free agency this offseason. After all, he won NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP back in his earlier days with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In 2023, he had a big bounce back season with the Chicago Cubs in which he posted a career-best .307 average, along with 95 runs scored, 26 home runs, 97 RBI and 20 stolen bases.

As a former Gold Glove recipient in 2019, Bellinger can also provide solid defence in the outfield to complement his offensive output and speed on the basepaths. With the departure of Kevin Kiermaier to free agency, Bellinger appears to be the ideal replacement in centre field for the Jays. More importantly, with the Jays’ focus on injecting more offence into their lineup for the upcoming season, he would fit the bill perfectly.

If multiple teams start driving his price tag up as the pursuit intensifies, the Jays should proceed with caution. They must keep in mind that prior to the 2023 season, Bellinger actually struggled mightily in his previous three seasons with the Dodgers, including a horrendous season in 2021 when he hit only .165 with a .542 OPS. If his regression seen in those three seasons is a more true indicator of how he will perform, with the 2023 season being an outlier, the Jays should be weary of giving him an overblown contract. Otherwise, it could end up blowing up in their faces and set them back quite a bit in the coming years.

Josh Hader

When it comes to one of the best relievers in the business, no one comes close to what Josh Hader can bring to a team. He has been one of, if not the best, closers in the game since 2018. With a career total of 165 saves and an 87% save conversion rate, he is as tough as it gets. It has probably even gotten to a point where the moment opposing teams see him enter a game, they know the game's over.

For his career, Hader sports a stellar 2.50 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP, with a whopping 648 strikeouts in 388.2 innings pitched. With the Jays losing Jordan Hicks to free agency and Jordan Romano having some shaky appearances in 2023, Hader could provide the much-needed shutdown relief at the back end of the bullpen to help close out ballgames. Together with Romano, they could form a two-headed monster similar to what Duane Ward and Tom Henke did back in the early 1990s in the Jays’ early contending years.

But once again, the Jays shouldn’t get involved in a bidding war with other teams if Hader’s value ends up skyrocketing. After all, there are some other solid, dependable relievers available in free agency that could provide much more bang for the buck if so. One obvious backup candidate is none other than Hicks himself. Just at the prime age of 27 heading into the 2024 season, Hicks possesses a top-notch blazing fastball that constantly hits triple digits, as witnessed by many of the Jays’ faithful this season. If he can harness his command just a bit better, folks, we could be looking at Hader-lite at potentially a much better value and price in the long run.

Jeimer Candelario

With the lack of quality third baseman in this year’s free agency, Matt Chapman is the top option available. The Jays have already previously expressed interest in re-signing Chapman, but if those plans fall through, many believe that they could turn their attention to the next best option in Jeimer Candelario.

Candelario put together a solid campaign in 2023 by posting a .251 average and .807 OPS, along with 77 runs scored, 22 home runs and 70 RBI in 140 games played. Looking further into his previous track record, he can provide approximately 15-20 home runs and 50-70 RBI while batting around .240-.250 per season, which all happens to mirror Chapman’s production in recent years.

However, Candelario is leagues below Chapman in terms of providing elite defence, as for his career, he has compiled -26 DRS with a .969 fielding percentage. Just for comparison, Chapman has an astounding 94 DRS in just seven seasons along with a .973 fielding percentage. With many teams likely to go after Candelario once he becomes a hot commodity the moment Chapman is off the board, the Jays should remain conservative in the offers they give him. That’s because with his limitations defensively along with his inconsistent offence, he may not be a long-term answer at the position for the ballclub. In such case, the Jays would be better off using an internal solution and saving their resources to address other needs where they could get a more substantial upgrade as a result.

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Shohei Ohtani

Cody Bellinger

Josh Hader

Jeimer Candelario

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