4 changes the Blue Jays must make immediately to avoid tumbling down the standings

We’ve reached the dumpster fire stage. The Toronto Blue Jays are now tied with Oakland — yes, the very recently sad sack Athletics — in the Wild Card standings. After a disheartening 10-1 loss against the NL East leading Philadelphia Phillies, with their best starter on the bump Tuesday, the Jays fell 7.5 games back of the Orioles and Yankees in the the AL East, in last place. They’ve lost 10 of their last 14.

Despite salvaging a series split in Philadelphia on Thursday, the Blue Jays remain 4.5 games back in the Wild Card chase, with a -44 run differential, only better than other last place teams like the Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies.

Manager John Schneider seems like he’s at his wit’s end, getting thrown out of Tuesday night’s game for arguing called strikes. The offence has been mostly listless, as evidenced by a league worst .566 OPS with runners in scoring position.

It’s gotten so bad, MLB insiders are starting to suggest Toronto may be a seller at the July 30th trade deadline. General manager Ross Atkins has been dumpster diving à la May 2021, leaving no stone unturned in the search for pitching help.

The team ERA is 4.64, sixth-highest in MLB, and opposing teams are batting .260 against Jays pitchers, the 4th highest average in the league. The bullpen has allowed a league high 22 home runs, so news that the team’s best reliever this season, Yimi García, has been unavailable to pitch due to a lower back issue only adds to the hurt.

But apart from a July trade deadline fire sale, what other moves should the Blue Jays organization make before it’s too late for this season? Below, we suggest four changes the organization needs to make immediately to avoid tumbling down the standings.

Wholesale changes needed in the front office

Team president Mark Shapiro needs to bite the bullet and fire GM Ross Atkins and his entire analytics department; it’s time. After 8+ seasons running baseball operations, even casual fans are starting to turn on the unlikeable roster that they’ve assembled. James Click won a World Series as GM with the 2022 Houston Astros; it’s time to promote him to the GM’s role in Toronto.

Ownership needs to recognize the following:

Playoff wins since Atkins’ first season as GM in 2016 (with a team where the top ten players by WAR were all inherited): ZERO.

Farm system ranking after 8+ years of player drafting, signing and development: 24th, but that was before the injuries to top pitching prospects Ricky Tiedemann, Brandon Barriera and Landen Maroudis, while another top prospect, Chad Dallas, has regressed badly. They’ve been ranked bottom third by MLB Pipeline for three consecutive years.

Note also that after eight drafts and international signing periods, Atkins’ only 1st round draft picks and international signings currently on the 26-man roster are starter Alek Manoah (13.50 ERA in his one start), reliever Nate Pearson (5.11 ERA), and catcher Alejandro Kirk (batting .205 with an OPS+ of 70).

2024 Luxury tax payroll: $248M, which is above the $237M Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold this year, and will trigger an estimated $3.2M tax bill; and that’s after they paid a $5.5M luxury tax after exceeding the CBT threshold in 2023.

There’s a reason why the Pythagorean estimate of Toronto’s win-loss record is only 14-23 compared to their actual record of 17-20: they’ve allowed 178 runs against only 134 runs scored, for a run differential of -44. In other words, their actual winning percentage of .459 implies they’ve been lucky to win 17 games so far.

We all know the Blue Jays missed out on Shohei Ohtani. But Atkins and his front office could have traded for any of Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, Tyler O'Neill, Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Jarred Kelenic and Chris Sale this past offseason. Or re-signed any of the available former Jay free agents like Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Marcus Stroman, Jordan Hicks and Teoscar Hernandez, or other available free agents like Jurickson Profar, Reynaldo López, Luis Severino and Shota Imanaga.

And the Blue Jays are already 7.5 games behind Baltimore, who are younger and more talented… with only a $114M luxury tax payroll and the No.1 ranked farm system. The Yankees feature a modern day ‘Murderers’ Row’ with Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton all bludgeoning baseballs.

The Jays farm is bare cupboards. The $225M, 26-man payroll is bloated. It’s also one of the oldest rosters in baseball. Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr. will be free agents after next season. So will Jordan Romano, Chris Bassitt, Chad Green, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson and Cavan Biggio. Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi and Yimi García are all potentially gone after this year. And which Blue Jays’ fan is excited about 2.5+ more years of George Springer, who’s owed ~$70M? Ross Atkins has proven he cannot be trusted with any of this.

Either trade or DFA the dead wood

This MLB roster is clogged with a bunch of washed up bums like Kevin Kiermaier, Daniel Vogelbach, Cavan Biggio and George Springer. The new front office under James Click should see if anyone will accept a trade for them, with the Blue Jays obviously eating most of their salary. If no one wants these guys, then release them and eat their salaries.

It’s time to call up younger talent in Martinez, Horwitz and Barger. Start Ernie Clement at 3B and give Schneider and Horwitz/Barger the outfield corners — they need to be in the everyday lineup — along with Martinez at 2B and Daulton Varsho playing full-time in center field.

Other role players with value in the trade market who can be moved by the deadline include pending free agents Justin Turner, who’s 39-years old, as well as relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards. Perhaps they can return some younger prospects who can help to improve the farm system depth.

While just designating the dead wood for assignment is a bold move, these players are clogging up the MLB roster and preventing the younger players from gaining valuable experience at the big league level. Horwitz for one has nothing left to prove at Triple-A, and Martinez will bring some much needed swagger to the clubhouse that the Jays probably haven’t had since Hernandez was traded for Swanson, and Gurriel was included with top prospect Gabriel Moreno in the Varsho trade.

Extend some of the homegrown talent, plus Kikuchi

The Blue Jays need some continuity on the roster, and an extension for catcher Danny Jansen and starter Yusei Kikuchi, who is thriving in Toronto, both make a lot of sense. Jansen was moved up to 5th in the order Wednesday for only the fourth time this season, and the team is now 1-0 with him hitting higher in the lineup since their team meeting.

Sure, Jansen has a long list of nagging injuries over his 7 MLB seasons and only averaged 76 games played per season from 2021-2023. He’s already missed significant time again this year, playing only 15 games so far after suffering a right wrist fracture in spring training.

However, after Atkins traded Moreno — at one point the top prospect overall on the Baseball America prospect rankings — to the Diamondbacks, the organization effectively bet on the catching tandem of Jansen and Kirk. It’s time they committed to that with a contract extension for pending free agent Jansen.

Kikuchi is also another player worth extending. After signing a three-year, $36M contract with Toronto ahead of the 2022 season, he’s compiled a 19-15 record with a 4.15 ERA over 308 innings with Toronto, including 348 strikeouts. Since a tough 2022 when he had a 5.19 ERA, he’s been worth every penny, and is in his prime at 32-years old. The team is 37-34 in his 71 appearances, and given the dearth of starting pitching depth across the Blue Jays farm system, he could help to stabilize the rotation depth for the next few seasons.

The revamped front office under James Click will also have to figure out what to do with Bichette and Guerrero, in addition to Bassitt and closer Jordan Romano before they can all just walk as free agents after the 2025 season. If ownership wants to extend the current competitive window, they should all be extended. However, payroll constraints might limit them to a big, long term deal with only one of their two core hitters, plus shorter term deals for Jansen, Kikuchi and Bassitt.

This organisation is at a crossroads: over 60% of the current 26-man roster is eligible for free agency in the next two years. None of the homegrown core has been extended beyond their arbitration years, unlike the industry trend to extend talent even in their pre-arb windows. Respected third-party, outside evaluations of the Blue Jays' farm system don’t suggest there’s much in the pipeline to replace those players should they walk, with no waves of talent like we’re now seeing in Baltimore and Detroit, as well as Tampa, Milwaukee, Los Angeles and New York; and, the team is in last place in their division with an old roster and bloated payroll. This is not what fans were promised when Shapiro and Atkins were hired following the 2015 ALCS run.