4 Blue Jays who could be the difference between success and failure in 2024

Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho exceeded expectations during his first season in Toronto with the Blue Jays. However, this was specific to his defensive play rather than overall.

Varsho led all players with 29 Defensive Runs Saved, which in turn helped the Blue Jays also lead the way in this category as a team. He ranked second with a 2.8 dWAR and only had one error all season, as the most consistent and durable defensive player in the game.

The same cannot be sad for the 27-year-old's exploits at the plate, where he disappointed all season. He produced a .220/.285/.389 slash line, .674 OPS and 85 OPS+.

The thing is though, that Varsho is actually capable of being a decent offensive presence. Consider that a season earlier in Arizona, he hit 27 home runs and 74 RBI.

In this respect, the 2017 second round draft pick did still rank tied-third on the Blue Jays in homers and fifth in RBI, although this does also allude to the team underperforming offensively as a whole. Regardless, if he can hit more like he did in 2022 (and 2021) with the Diamondbacks, it would greatly help the team.

Another reason the Blue Jays need to see better production from Varsho, is that he can do damage once he's on base. He's a strong runner, who is also good at stealing bases. (He was also first in the AL in bunts last season, which is something to utilize in contributing towards getting him on base more in the first place.)

As per Jays Journal's Ethan Miller, the Blue Jays were so eager/desperate to bring Varsho's bat to life, he was moved all around the lineup. In fact, he was the only player on the team to see at least one at-bat in every position in the order.

Not helping the Marshfield, Wisconsin native is the success of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who was traded to Arizona in exchange for him (along with Gabriel Moreno). Similarly playing in left field when he wasn't the DH, Gurriel was superior offensively and named to his first All-Star Game.

In one respect, Varsho will likely never be one of the most feared bats in the Blue Jays lineup, but he can still be extremely productive if he gets into a rhythm. If he combines this with continuing to produce at the same level defensively, he will be one of the best overall players on the team.

Alek Manoah

The Blue Jays undoubtedly had one of the best and most durable rotations in the Majors last season. They finished the 2023 campaign with the third-best team ERA among all starters, while also pitching the fifth-most innings.

Kevin Gausman proved himself as the staff ace, on the way to finishing third in AL Cy Young voting. Chris Bassitt was as reliable as expected, José Berríos had a bounce-back campaign and Yusei Kikuchi surprised everyone with a career year.

All are set to be back in 2024 and if they continue from where they left off last year, it will mean major problems again for opposing lineups. The thing is though, the rotation could potentially be even better, depending on a certain X factor.

More specifically, what version of Alek Manoah the Blue Jays get, i.e. the one from 2022 or last year? The answer could mean all the difference in the team underachieving and taking their game to another level.

The 2022 version of Manoah was sensational, despite it only being his second year in the Majors. He produced a 16-7 record, 2.24 ERA, 3.35 FIP and 0.992 WHIP in 31 starts, as he was named to the All-MLB first team and came third in AL Cy Young Voting.

It seemed like the sky was the limit for the Homestead, Florida native, with him set to be the Blue Jays' staff ace for many years. Instead, last season turned into a living nightmare as he experienced an equally sensational crash landing that no one could have predicted.

The early omens were bad when Manoah turned up for spring training overweight. He was pulled from the season opener during the fourth inning after allowing nine hits, two walks and five earned runs, and he never recovered.

At one point the 25-year-old was sent down to the Florida Complex League to work on his game, before the Blue Jays recalled him arguably quicker than they should have done. His situation continued to trend downwards and his season eventually ended early, in part due to his refusal to report to Buffalo.

When it was all said and done, Manoah went 3-9 in 19 starts, as he produced a pitiful stat line that included a 5.87 ERA, 6.01 FIP and 1.740 WHIP. The hope is that everything that has happened will serve as a wake-up call, which both humbles and motivates him to put in more effort.

If nothing else, the 2022 All-Star will at least get the opportunity to compete for the fifth starting spot in the rotation - Atkins said he deserves as much. In truth even if he can be a slightly above average pitcher this year then it will help, but if he can return to somewhere close to his previous form, then the Blue Jays will be really onto something.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

We appreciate that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was one of the Blue Jays' better bats in 2023. In this respect, he led the team in home runs, RBI and OBP.

However, the reality is that Guerrero has regressed offensively since his MVP-quality campaign in 2021. As a result, there has been some concern that rather than that season representing the start of a truly special career, it is instead a one-off, never to be repeated year.

As much as this line of thinking is understandable, it's too soon to give up on the three-time All-Star. He's still the same player capable of living up to his potential as a generational superstar at the plate.

The Blue Jays underperformed offensively as a collective last season, with Guerrero in many ways being the poster boy for this underwhelming production. If he can get back somewhere close to his 2021 form, the lineup is going to be a lot more dangerous for opposing pitchers to contend with.

Of course, while it's clear how much the 24-year-old is capable of, the question remains as to if he will every live up to his true potential? The Blue Jays and their fans want to believe he will, especially when you consider how young he still is.

In this respect, Guerrero will surely be motivated to still prove people right (or wrong depending on their perspective). If nothing else, at least he has the added incentive of wanting to earn a big payday, with him currently set to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2025 season.

The 2021 Silver Slugger has stated his preference is to remain in Toronto long-term. However, he also still has to prove to the organisation that he's deserving of a lucrative extension offer from the Blue Jays.

Perhaps providing further motivation for Guerrero, is that the Blue Jays had at one point been reportedly fielding calls for his services. As much as this doesn't necessarily mean Atkins and company want to move him, he's yet to prove himself as being indispensable.

From his perspective, Guerrero seems to be taking things more seriously, with him hitting the gym since the 2023 season finished and looking fitter than ever. He is arguably the number one key to the Blue Jays being better this year, but it's a case of going out there and actually showing what he is truly capable of.