4 Blue Jays spring training overreactions after first week of action

This is the silly time of spring training. It feels like this is one of the earlier starts to spring training in recent memory and an ideal time for fans to overreact to what they are seeing over such a small sample of games. Typically, none of the results matter and have little predictive effect on the fortunes of a team during the regular season. The 2023 Miami Marlins had the worst record in Grapefruit League play last spring, yet they ended up finishing the year with 84 wins and a wild card spot.

It’s a typical spring atmosphere in which you see lots of different players, pitchers who won’t pitch very long and some players who carry a lot of intrigue. These exhibition games are a chance for fans to learn more about their favorite players. The analysts like to say that pitchers need spring training more than position players. Does that mean pitcher struggles should be more alarming than struggles for position players? Who knows!  

On the other hand, though, it feels like the Blue Jays have been taking their lumps in the first week of contests. Two lopsided losses to the Yankees always leaves a bitter aftertaste. It has felt like the Toronto offense is lifeless and the struggles of a select group of pitchers has raised alarm bells about the upcoming season. Toss in the inevitable spring training injury updates and its got people losing their minds. The bottom line is that it in spring training just about everything is ripe for overreaction.

At the same time, it’s fun to react to this stuff and what else can we do as Opening Day is still almost four weeks away? Let’s analyze (as much as we can) the four overreactions to what has been happening on the west coast of Florida over the past week. 

Nate Pearson looks cooked

Nate Pearson is a 2017 first round draft pick in the Jays’ organization who needs to have a solid showing in spring to earn one of those final spots in the bullpen. He has been dogged by injuries and disappointment recently, even leading to trade speculation this past winter. He made his spring appearance following Chad Dallas in the first game of the exhibition slate against a mostly “starter-less” Phillies lineup. Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber - among others - were not in this lineup.

It didn’t matter, though, as the right-hander yielded two home runs, including one shot to Scott Kingery, a disappointment of his own in the Phillies organization and one who has a very small chance of playing important innings for Philadelphia this season. Down 3-0, a long fly out was coaxed off the bat of Rodolfo Castro before Aramis Garcia lined a single to left field. The final piece of misery on the Nate Pearson cake was sealed when former Blue Jay Whit Merrifield laced a double to deep right center. Out came John Schneider and that was an early exit for the Florida native.

In all fairness, Pearson partially redeemed himself with a scoreless ninth inning against Atlanta on the first Saturday in March. He is best known for his high velocity and was still touching the upper 90s but needs to control his offerings better. Pitching to a 4.85 ERA over 35 games, Pearson once again battled inconsistency as he shuttled between the majors and minors last season. His walk rate skyrocketed, particularly in the second half of 2023. Given his injury history, it's something to keep an eye on. This is a pitcher who has seen it all. The question is can he find any level of consistency? Fans should monitor his outings this spring as he looks to add another pitch this spring.

Trevor Richards can't be counted on this season

Richards has been an integral piece for the Blue Jays in recent times. He plays his role of soaking up innings really well. It's still early enough that he hasn't had to soak up that many innings just yet. Unfortunately, Richards has had to wear the dubious distinction of giving up Juan Soto's first un-official home run in a Yankees uniform.

Last season, Richards appeared to be on a roll until a mid-season injury derailed a promising campaign. In 12 games down the stretch last season, batters hit .302 against him in only 12.1 innings. That struggle had the effect of making his season seem subpar, even if the early part was very strong.

The projections call for a positive return for Richards this season. The peripherals look good and predict solid strikeout and walk numbers. Now a year older, it will be harder for Richards to tap into his 2022 greatness. Richards is one of the pitchers like Pearson who need a solid spring to justify their continued presence on this roster.

The offense stinks once again!

Shout out to Blair and Barker for pointing this out, but this is a part of the team that needs to be scrutinized given the offensive ineptitude of last season. Toronto has scored 40 runs in eight games so far, working out to a tidy five runs per game. Of course, that figure includes a wide assortment of players who won't play an important inning this season and an opening game in which the Blue Jays plated 13 runs.

The Blue Jays' main bats have been holding their own, which is a good sign for the future of this offense. Daulton Varsho had a solid first game with as many hits as RBI (3), but eerily silent since the opening game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr is 4-for-10 and Bo Bichette is 5-for-12. Meanwhile, late offseason signees Daniel Vogelbach and Eduardo Escobar have been pulling up the rear. Escobar remains hitless in spring training to this point, but Vogey did redeem himself with a moonshot home run off Gerrit Cole on the first day of March. We hope for more of the same from the burly slugger.

Bottom line, fans need to see signs this offense is humming on all cylinders. It would feel better if the offense starts cooking at the end of camp as that momentum could be carried into the opening series. Spring training is long and fans need to see some kind of offensive momentum to mentally turn the page on last season.