4 Blue Jays players in danger of losing their roster spot after Justin Turner signing

Now that the Toronto Blue Jays have added a new bat to the lineup, there's going to have to be some roster shuffling to squeeze the newest member of the team onto the roster.

On Tuesday, the Blue Jays agreed to a one-year, $13M deal with free agent slugger Justin Turner. After a successful nine-year stint with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the third baseman was last seen terrorizing Blue Jays pitching with the Boston Red Sox last season.

In 12 games against Toronto, he hit .353 with a .939 OPS, 18 hits, two home runs, seven RBI, and 10 runs scored. The Jays couldn't get him out. But now that's a problem of the past.

The new concern for the front office will be who to move off of the 40-man once the contract is signed and the team officially adds the 39-year-old to the roster.

Here are the most obvious candidates who may lose their spot.

Ernie Clement

Infielder Ernie Clement is currently on the 40-man roster but will have an uphill battle to make the team out of spring training, at least from Roster Resource's projection.

The 27-year-old Clement appeared in 30 games for the Blue Jays in 2023, but almost half of those came as a pinch runner or pinch hitter. He got some starts at shortstop in the second half while Bo Bichette was out nursing his troublesome right leg.

By all accounts, Clement did exactly what manager John Schneider wanted, and more. If you look at Clement's numbers, it makes you wonder why he didn't get more playing time, even in the congested Blue Jays infield.

Over 52 plate appearances, he slashed .380/.385/.500 with a 144 wRC+. He hit one home run, drove in 10, and scored seven times. But there's something about the small sample size performance that points to a hot stretch of overachievement.

The former fourth-round pick struck out a career-low 7.7 percent of the time, and that's much lower than his career average, which also is really good. In his 110 games before joining the Blue Jays, he ran a 14.4 percent strikeout rate. So you can expect some regression this season, if he gets playing time.

The most worrying metrics come from his underlying Statcast data.

Clement barreled the ball at a concerningly low 2.1 percent in 2023 — the league average was 8.1 percent. He also doesn't hit the ball hard enough to instill confidence like his .500 slugging percentage would have you believe. His max exit velocity last year was 105.4 mph (his career-best is 107.3 mph), and his career average EV is 85.5 mph. Those numbers align with his .264 slugging percentage and .060 ISO from 2021 and 2022.

Don't be surprised to see Clement's name drop off the 40-man roster to make way for the veteran Turner.

Nathan Lukes

After making his MLB debut in 2023, Nathan Lukes looks like he’s in a precarious position to be the odd man out when Justin Turner joins the Blue Jays roster. The 29-year-old outfielder was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo and recalled to the big club five times last year and never got a chance to grab any real playing time.

He made 29 appearances in a Jays uniform, and like Clement, almost half of them were in a pinch-running or pinch-hitting role. Unlike Clement, Lukes didn’t do anything to help his case for more playing time, slashing a meager .192/.290/.308 over 31 plate appearances.

Honestly, it’s hard to find anything in his stats or underlying metrics that might convince the front office to keep him on the 40-man roster. He struck out at a 29 percent rate in his small sample of at-bats, and when he did make contact, there wasn’t enough behind it. He topped out with a 102.8 mph max EV and an 86.5 mph average EV without barreling a ball.

It’s unfortunate for Lukes because he hit in Buffalo last year, sporting a .366/.423/.530 slash line. He just doesn’t have the power or speed tools to make himself indispensable. Despite the .530 slugging percentage, he hit five home runs in his 48 games and ran a ridiculously high .401 BABIP.

Roster Resource doesn’t currently have Lukes on the active roster, and despite his ability in the outfield, he might get squeezed even further down the pecking order. With the versatile Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the Jays already have another body to plug in the outfield when needed.

Spencer Horwitz

Another player who made his MLB debut with the Blue Jays last year, Spencer Horwitz spent his brief time in the majors splitting 10 starts between DH and first base. He pinch-hit in his other five appearances.

The 26-year-old lefty hit .256 and put up a decent .726 OPS in his limited action, with seven RBI and one long ball.

In MLB Pipeline’s last update in 2023, Horwitz was ranked the No. 16 Blue Jays prospect, the highest he has been since being drafted in the 24th round in 2019. None of Horwitz’s tools are going to make him pop in the majors, with his hit tool being the highest-graded at 55 on the 80-grade scale by Pipeline.

He showed off his hit tool and plate discipline in his 107 games in Triple-A in 2023, running an impressive .337/.450/.495 slash line, with 10 home runs, 72 RBI, and nine stolen bases to boot. His 16.1 percent walk rate and 14.9 percent strikeout rate look nice, but don’t forget about the automatic strike zone used in Triple-A, which no doubt aided his already good eye at the dish. In his 44 plate appearances with Toronto, Horwitz ran a 9.1 percent walk rate and struck out 27.3 of the time.

Without knowing the Blue Jays’ plans for the newly-acquired Turner, Horwitz’s spot on the 40-man could be safe. But, if the Jays envision Turner taking over Brandon Belt’s vacated DH/first base role, Horwitz could very well get the bump to non-roster status if the team doesn’t see a need for his services this season.