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4 Blue Jays most likely to be traded if the club sells at the deadline
The Blue Jays are a quarter into the 2024 season, and the results have not clicked as they hoped. The Jays stand at an 19-23 record, having lost 6 of their last 7 series. Their run differential shows no signs of encouragement either at -47, which is an expected record of 16-26. Several key players have underperformed to this point, and the further the season goes along, the further the team may slip away from postseason contention.
What should happen if the Jays find themselves non competitive in the upcoming months? Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office may have no choice but to be sellers at the deadline. This could be the best course of action to give themselves pieces for the future, instead of going for it now, when there's so much ground to make up. So realistically, who would be moved by the Jays? It would need to be players having good enough seasons to warrant another team wanting to acquire them. There have been rumours that the Baltimore Orioles have considered Jordan Romano, so options are around to entertain with other teams. The Jays find themselves with a lot of players who are impending free agents, meaning it may be in their best interesting to trade their rental players and take advantage of the trade market.
Yusei Kikuchi
Kikuchi is having the best start to his career so far. In 9 starts, Kikuchi has a 2.60 ERA, 2.57 FIP, and has struck out 55 batters in 52 innings pitched. He appears to be a completely new pitcher for the Jays after his shaky debut season with the team in 2022. His command has also improved significantly, as Kikuchi currently has a 4.8 BB%, which is 16th lowest for all qualified starters.
Currently, Kikuchi is pitching like an ace. And at worst, he's become an extremely viable #3 starter that any team would be willing to add to their rotation. He's a left handed pitcher, averaging 95.6 mph on his fastball, which makes him an even more enticing candidate at the trade deadline. Kikuchi will be a free agent after this season, and is playing himself into a great future contract. The Jays would like to retain Kikuchi after the developments he's made, but could end up benefitting more by moving him at the deadline. There will be plenty of suitors for teams looking to strengthen their rotation, and it's without question that Kikuchi has been a strength for the Jays.
Yimi García
There haven't been many relievers in baseball better than Yimi García. In 17 innings, he has a 0.53 ERA, and a 0.59 WHIP which second amongst relievers league-wide. García has been untouchable for the Jays, not allowing a single base hit off of his four-seam fastball, which he consistently locates at the top of the zone. With García currently having a 26.2 K-BB%, he's become a very tough pitcher too face, which also makes him one of the Jays best trade chips available.
This isn't unexpected from García either, as he's been a good reliever throughout his 10 year MLB tenure. He has a career 3.47 ERA and 1.050 WHIP across 376.1 innings pitched. So far in 2024, he's emerged as one of the best right handed relievers in the game. Relief pitchers are constantly moved each year, as teams always need to shore up bullpen strength, and it's clear that García would be a hefty upgrade to any team.
It's no doubt that García has been a bright spot for the Jays. He is currently the only Jays reliever with a positive fWAR at 0.5. The Jays bullpen has the third-highest team ERA in all of MLB at 5.03, while giving up the most home runs with 1.51 HR/9. García's contributions have only become more vital, putting more teams on notice to how invaluable he can be. He's a free agent after this season, but for teams that are looking to make a playoff push, García will improve those odds.
Danny Jansen
Danny Jansen has been with the orginization for a long time. Since being drafted by the Jays in 2013, and making his debut in 2018, we've seen the immense growth for the 29-year-old catcher over the years. Jansen has truly elevated his game to another level, being an above average hitter for the past 4 seasons. He's off to another torrid start this season, hitting .298/.379/.632 with a 183 wRC+. Jansen has the highest .ISO in all of baseball at .333 for players with a minimum of 60 PAs.
It's clear that Jansen has emerged as a very good hitter, and he grades out roughly average defensively, at both throwing out runners and framing. This level of production makes him an incredible commodity to have, and could get a decent return, considering how difficult it can be to find catchers with the power numbers that Jansen can produce.
The question is that if Jansen is truly as valuable as the Jays believe, why would they not extend him for themselves? The biggest issue with Jansen has been his struggles to remain healthy over the past few seasons. He has been on the IL 7 times since June 2021, which might make the Jays more hesitant to commit to him for a long term contract. He hits free agency after this year, so if the Jays don't have intentions on bringing him back on another contract, it likely makes the most sense to offset him by the deadline. Many teams would be interested in a quality level catcher, and not many can definitively surpass Jansen's calibre.
Bo Bichette
This could very well be one of the biggest trades to happen at the trade deadline. Shortstop Bo Bichette is a free agent after 2025, but could end up being moved earlier to get more of a return. Bichette's early struggles have been put on full display this year as he's hitting .227/.287/.320 and just 2 home runs in 164 plate appearances. Bichette has a 0.93 ISO, which is significant regression from his career mark. Bichette has a career 123 wRC+ and was a consistent 4.5-5.0 fWAR player for the past 3 seasons.
There had been rumours of Bichette being traded in the offseason, but now it could make a lot more sense to entertain the concept. If he manages to recuperate some of his value, he would become one of the most valuable players that could be moved by the Jays. At just 26 years old, there is still a lot of interest around the league to acquire Bichette, however it's only likely to happen in the event that the Jays front office decides to fully re-tool the entire major league roster.
The Jays will have a lot of interesting decisions to make this July about direction to move this team to, and it's mostly dependent on where they stand in the league in the next few months. Atkins will have to decide if this is the team worth committing more assets to, or cutting bait while he can to extend their competitive window for later years.