3 ways the Blue Jays can shake things up, 2 moves they need to avoid

Barely a month into the 2024 season, the Toronto Blue Jays find themselves teetering on the brink of calamity, under .500 and in last place in the American League East, thanks to an offense which is not only among the worst in the game, but among the worst in franchise history.

No, seriously. At 3.45 runs per game, the Jays sit third last in the league, ahead of only Oakland and the White Sox, while the number is worse than that put up by every incarnation of the team for the past 47 years, save for 1981.

Of course, manager John Schneider is still preaching patience. “We’ll get better,” he insisted only days ago, “we’re confident that we will.”

But years-deep into this type of tomorrow-ism, frustration levels are rising, and many believe that something dramatic must be done immediately. In fact, even the mouthpiece of the team over at Sportsnet loudly proclaimed, “staying course no longer an option” earlier this week.

The question is, what can the Blue Jays do to shake things up and save the season before it is too late?

Below are five conspicuous options staring the team in the face right now. Three are moves they should make as soon as right this minute, while the other two, well, they should probably stay away from …

Three moves the Jays should make to shake things up right now

1. Sack the Front Office

Coming into the 2024 season, many wondered why the Blue Jays had not made more substantial changes in the offseason, after a year in which offensive underperformance ultimately doomed the team. Sure, ‘Old Man’ Turner, as he is affectionately known amongst Jays fans, was brought into the mix, while Don Mattingly was elevated to the role of ‘offensive coordinator,’ but how, many asked, could the front office have failed to fundamentally alter a team structure which brought so much frustration in 2023?

The answer is actually a simple one.

When observed through the analytics framework created and exulted by the front office, underperformance in 2023 was little more than an error of sample size, one which would surely even itself out through a 2024 bounce-back up and down the lineup.

And that’s just the issue. The Ross Atkins-led Blue Jays front office has constructed as canon an analytics framework based not upon any sort of mathematical truth, but upon their opinion as to what constitutes positive processes and outcomes.

The problem is that their opinion is wrong. The things which their invented analytics framework tells them should be happening on the field are not happening on the field, leaving Atkins to appear more and more like a guy sitting at a slot machine, pulling the handle again and again as he loses, always believing that the next tug will bring the jackpot.

In many ways, the options for what the Jays can do to shake things up which appear below can be seen as tinkering around the edges while ignoring the root of the problem. If the Jays are to truly reach any sort of long-dreamed-about potential, they must first remove the anchor of Atkins’ failed analytics from around their neck.

2. Shake Up the Lineup

The opposite end on the drama spectrum from taking a flamethrower to the front office, changing the way the lineup is constructed seems like the absolute bare minimum which is needed for the Jays right now.

It is no secret that George Springer seems to be in a tussle with father time at the moment, or that Guerrero and Bichette have come crawling out of the gate. Add to this the metamorphosis of Alejandro Kirk from Silver Slugger to offensive black hole, and a plethora of Punch and Judy just about everywhere else in the order, and what’s left is a lineup which simply isn’t working.

The most popular suggestion as it stands today is moving Springer out of the leadoff spot until he finds his stroke. This was actually something the Jays did last year, temporarily moving Whit Merrifield into the role and capitalizing on a hot streak which momentarily turned around an offense stuck in the mud.

Even better though, how about playing Davis ‘Babe’ Schneider every day? Yes, his numbers have declined from the highs of his breathtaking debut last year, but the fact remains that he still has the fourth highest OPS on the team (behind only Varsho, Turner, and the recently returned Danny Jansen), while putting up the same number of home runs and RBIs as Cavan Biggio and Isiah Kiner-Falefa put together in less than half as many games. Add in his apparent flair for the dramatic, and why not put ‘Babe’ somewhere he can drive in runs and let him have at it?

Of course, a potential reorganization of the lineup is directly related to the option for a shakeup discussed in the previous section. Right now, Ross Atkins doesn’t want to walk away from the slot machine and see the next guy walk up and win the jackpot on their first pull. In other words, when the analytics insist that a turnaround is coming at any moment, the flexibility to make changes based on what’s actually happening is all but erased.

Fun fact: as the Jays opened up a weekend series with the Washington Nationals on Friday, they faced a lineup which had just moved red-hot rookie Jacob Young into the leadoff spot in an effort to get his surprising .300 average more opportunities to impact the game. The series before that, the Jays ran into a Kansas City Royals team which had just dropped the highly touted MJ Melendez down in the order due to his early season struggles. Yes, it may seem obvious that tinkering with the lineup is something that baseball teams do to respond to hot and cold streaks, and indeed it is … just about everywhere outside of Toronto.

Nobody is saying that Schneider must be penciled into the cleanup spot for the next ten years, or that Springer should forever be banished to the bottom of the order. But with the offense struggling the way it is right now, it might be time to start building the lineup based on performance rather than expected outcomes for the next little while.

3. Make a Trade

What better way to shake up a lethargic team than to bring a fresh face into the clubhouse? This is particularly true for a team with a hole as obvious as the Toronto Blue Jays – someone who can hit the ball please, a bat, any bat!

Of course, many will assert that it is not the ideal time of year for a major trade, so early in the season that most teams still harbor a belief they can be in the mix, while others seek to sit on their trade pieces and drive the price up as the trade deadline nears.

Broadly, this is probably true. And yet, note that the San Diego Padres just made a move to bring in two-time reigning batting champion Luis Arráez from the moribund Marlins, adding his gargantuan average to the top of a lineup already flush with would-be stars.

No, it is not impossible to swing a deal for a Silver Slugger-caliber hitter this early in the season. Some teams resign themselves early to the writing on the wall and are prepared to cash in on anything they have of value should the right offer float their way.

Speaking of which, sitting at an astonishing 6-26, the Chicago White Sox seem poised to challenge for the worst season of all time. Having already traded their 28-year-old ace Dylan Cease, might they be just about ready to move the soon-to-be 27-year-old middle-of-the-order colossus Luis Robert Jr.?

What about the Rays, who seem to potentially be facing a rare year of mediocrity. Might they be preparing to explore offers for Isaac Paredes, who at 25-years-old is coming off a 31-homer season, but is starting to see his salary creep up to a level which may be a little rich for the Rays?

And we don’t even need to bring up the Cardinals, who many believe to be in the midst of a step back which will see them move near-perennial MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

The point is, if these types of players were to be officially put on the trading block in the coming months, they would surely generate interest from nearly every team in the league. Why wouldn’t the Jays try to jump the line and get their name in the mix early. If it’s on the table, then one can only hope the team’s offensive struggles will provide the impetus required to take a big swing (yes, pun intended).

Two moves the Jays should NOT make to shake things up right now

1. Fire the manager/hitting coaches

This is not a defense of John Schneider and his staff; it is simply a recognition of the chains that bind them.

When Schneider took over from Charlie Montoyo in July of 2022, the hope was that he would be able to take the analytics framework provided by the front office and apply it through a filter of baseball acumen and awareness of what was happening on the field. Unfortunately, this has not happened, leaving Schneider and his staff as pencil pushing middle management, reading instructions off a piece of paper sent down from the offices upstairs.

As frustrating as some of Schneider’s decisions have been over the past few years, and as feebly as the offense has performed under Don Mattingly and Guillermo Martinez, replacing the coaches is not going to do anything if their replacements are bound by the same analytics yoke.

And quite frankly, this front office has already played its ‘fire the manager’ card. In fact, they are now on their third manager in the last seven years. Surely this is not the type of franchise the Toronto Blue Jays want to become, all unoriginality and obfuscation, stringing up the manager every year or two while the front office reclines comfortably into the muck they’ve created.

Sure, it may be that John Schneider and his hitting coaches should be fired. But this should be a decision made by a new front office.