3 remaining free agents the Blue Jays should sign and 2 they should avoid

It’s been a holiday season of empty stockings for Toronto Blue Jays fans. Ohtani is a Dodger – so close, yet so far – as is Yamamoto, while Soto is headed to the Bronx. Don’t despair just yet though. If front office proclamations are to be believed, the Jays have some $40+ million left to spend this offseason, and still lurking in the free agent market are a number of potential game changers. At this point, it’s not a matter of if, but when, and more importantly, who.

Who should the Jays be targeting with the wads of cash now inevitably burning a hole in their pocket, and who should they resolutely avoid? Below, you’ll find five free agents the Jays have been tied to in recent days – three they should make every effort to sign, and two you might be surprised to hear they should stay away from.

Three free agents the Blue Jays should sign

1. Cody Bellinger

Last week, reports emerged calling the Jays “the favorite” to land Bellinger, the biggest name still out there on the free agent market. If the rumors are true, Blue Jays fans should be ecstatic, since the former MVP checks just about every box the team is looking for.

Not only is he the middle-of-the-order lefty slugger the Jays have long sought – coming off a year in which he slashed .307/.356/.881 and earned his second Silver Slugger award – but he plays something between solid and spectacular defense at all three outfield spots, meaning he could bounce around all over the grass as well as at first base.

Of course, signing Bellinger would come with significant risk. After his MVP season in 2019, he effectively fell off a cliff, slashing an almost impossibly bad .203/.272/.376 over 1,143 plate appearances from 2020-2022, before reviving his career in 2023. Might he regress back into the player who was basically unplayable for three seasons? It’s a question many teams are not willing to oblige themselves to find the answer to, particularly considering that Bellinger’s contract is expected to be north of $200M.

And yet, what free agent does not come with risk? Ohtani got $700M, and he blew his arm out a few months ago, while Yamamoto got $325M, and he’s never thrown an inning in the big leagues. If the Jays are serious about serious about chasing championships, the opportunity to sign a potential MVP candidate entering his prime is too good to pass up.

2. Jorge Soler

In 2023, the Blue Jays front office went all-in on pitching and defense, and in some ways, the plan worked brilliantly. The Jays finished with the fourth lowest ERA in baseball, and by far the most defensive runs saved, winning the team Gold Glove.

And yet, despite this, they were only able to muster 89 wins behind an offense which fell to 11th in OPS, 16th in home runs, and 14th in runs scored, and too often felt helpless when the team fell behind by a run or two. (Surely, no Jays fan needs a reminder of the one run they put up over 18 innings while getting swept out of the playoffs.) Simply, it is unfathomable that the Jays would run it back in 2024 without adding some thump to the lineup.

Enter Jorge Soler. If there’s one thing the 6-foot-4 Cuban colossus of clout can do, it’s hit the ball over the fence. He put up 36 big flies in 2023, and since 2020, has averaged 34 per 162 games played, a number which does not even include his 48-homer season in 2019.

Really though, signing Soler would be more significant than just filling the Jays’ open DH spot with a proven masher the team so desperately needs. It would be a critical recognition of failure by the Blue Jays front office, a public admission, for perhaps the first time, that their proprietary algorithms are not infallible. If the Jays are to have success moving forward, this type of self-imposed reality check is something of a prerequisite.

Signing Soler won’t make up for dismantling the foundation of the most dynamic offense in baseball for the sake of run prevention, nor will it return José Berríos to the mound in the fourth inning of a win-or-go-home playoff game.

But it would be a good start.

Two free agents the Blue Jays should avoid

1. Matt Chapman

If you’re a regular here at Jays Journal, then you may already be aware – there are few Matt Chapman backers as unabashedly vocal as I am. In truth, if the Jays were to resign Chappy, I would probably celebrate, then gleefully prepare for another year of astonishing defense at third alongside breathtaking highs and maddening lows at the plate.

So why then does Chapman appear here as a free agent the Jays should not sign? It’s not just that his contract could exceed $150M and stretch until the 30-year-old is closing in on his 40s. More than that, it’s about the Blue Jays themselves, and where the strength of the organization lies.

Down on the farm, the Jays’ most exciting blue chip hitting prospects – Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger – have each spent the majority of their time on the left side of the infield. Since, barring something truly unforeseen, neither will be supplanting Bo Bichette as the Blue Jays’ starting shortstop, their most straightforward path to the big leagues most likely lies at third (or even second) base in the near future. Add to this that 2023 darling Davis “Babe” Schneider has spent time at third, and the simple fact is that re-signing Matt Chapman blocks the most intriguing young players in the organization from getting their shot.

If the choice is between signing Matt Chapman and signing nobody, Chappy is not the worst investment the Jays could make. But if the choice is between signing Chapman and signing an outfielder while letting the kids have a crack at third base in 2024, well, as much as it pains me to say, the latter is the way to go.

2. Justin Turner

“These guys are just like the Leafs,” is a common refrain every time the Jays fall flat on their face. Whether from self-deprecating fans of the Buds, or Leafs haters who cannot resist poking a long-festering wound, it’s hard not to automatically equate the failure of one Toronto team with the one who hasn’t gone all the way since the 1960s.

If there is one thing that stands out about the Leafs of recent times, aside from their playoff performances of course, it is their undying love for big names who are well past their prime – from Jumbo Joe to Wayne Simmonds, to Jason Spezza and Patrick Marleau, and beyond. For the Blue Jays, Justin Turner provides the opportunity to make the same kind of mistake.

It’s not that Turner is awful. In fact, he had a very solid 2023, putting up a slash line of .276/.345/.800 for the last place Red Sox. But look closer. Turner’s OPS+ has declined every single (full) season since 2018, while his exit velocity, hard hit %, and barrel % have cratered dramatically since 2020.

This is no longer the star who led the Dodgers to division title after division title all those years ago, his long hair flowing in the breeze as he chased batting titles and earned MVP votes. What’s left today is merely a player whose name far exceeds his performance.

To sign Turner after so narrowly missing out on the biggest names on the market would begin to border on dishonesty, a shiny name to dangle in front of fans who don’t realize the name isn’t so shiny anymore.

So, what do you think? Which free agents should the Blue Jays sign? And more importantly, which free agents will they sign? Let me know on the platform formerly known as Twitter – @WriteFieldDeep.