3 reasons why the Blue Jays are still in the running and 2 why they're not

As we get closer and closer to the halfway-point of the 2023 season, fans would like to think the picture is beginning to become clearer for the Blue Jays. In reality though, it remains blurred.

The Blue Jays have been inconsistent to date, sitting fourth in the AL East and projected to win 90 games at their current rate. They are one strong run of results away from being a genuine contender, but conversely, one stretch of poor outcomes could be their undoing.

So what will determine which direction the Blue Jays ultimately go in? We consider three reasons they are still in the running and two why they aren't, beginning with the positives:

Still in it: This team can just plain hit

We recently wrote about Bo Bichette's success with the bat, aka 'Bo knows hits'. This essentially extends to the team as a whole.

As of right now, the Blue Jays rank second in the majors for hits, 14 behind the league-leading Rangers. Unsurprisingly, they are also tied for second in batting average.

While Bichette leads the majors in hits on an individual level, it is not a case of relying on him too much. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman rank 12th and 21st respectively, with Texas as the only other team with three players featured in the top 20 for hits.

As much as the Blue Jays have been successful with their hitting, the potential is there for better end results when you consider they are just ninth in runs scored. Guerrero arguably leads the way when it comes to examples of who exactly can contribute more.

There may well be those who go the other way, and question if the Blue Jays can keep producing at such a high level, but the past two seasons prove this success is sustainable. Consider that in 2021 they ranked second in the Majors in both hits and batting average, and were even better last year in ranking first for both categories.

Still in it: Contract motivation

It is interesting to note how many Blue Jays players on the roster are reaching critical points with their contracts. This includes five who will be unrestricted free agents (UFA) following this season and 12 going to arbitration.

As you would expect, this results in extra motivation for players looking to prove their worth. In terms of the UFAs, Chapman and Kevin Kiermaier particularly stand out for their efforts so far in 2023.

Chapman has been fantastic for Toronto, leading all players in doubles and walks, while being on course for a single-season career-bests for batting average, OBP and OPS+. Kiermaier is similarly having a career-year, projected for a single-season best slash line of .302/.349/.491 and .839 OPS.

In respect of arbitration-eligible players, the main one is Guerrero, who would love to sign a long-term deal sooner than later. As much as he can/should perform better, he is arguably on course for the second-best season of his five-year major league career even at his current level of production.

Another arbitration-eligible player performing well is Nate Pearson, who is finally showing what he is capable of. In addition, Alejandro Kirk has turned things around recently with his bat and is getting closer to his All-Star form of last year.

Out of it: Lack of quality depth in the rotation

As much as the durability of the rotation has been key to keeping Toronto in contention, it is also a precarious situation. As lucky as they have been with the position, they desperately need it to continue.

As per Jays Journal's Edward Eng, the Blue Jays are not prepared to handle an injury to their rotation. They just do not have the required quality starting pitching depth.

In terms of the 40-man roster, the only real options are Bowden Francis and Thomas Hatch now that Zach Thompson has been DFA'd, with neither of them inspiring a whole lot of confidence. Hatch has been decidedly average and is arguably better-served as a reliever anyway.

Outside of the 40-man roster, Casey Lawrence leads the Bisons in starts, innings pitched and strikeouts. However, he also has a poor 5.81 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, which doesn't bode well if called up to the Majors.

As noted by Eng, this would then mean considering prospect Yosver Zulueta, but he is not ready yet for his first piece of MLB action. Overall, the rotation depth is concerning, especially with Manoah's recent demotion to the minor leagues.

Out of it: The AL East

When the newly-balanced MLB schedule was released for the 2023 season, in theory it was a positive for the Blue Jays. A reduction from 19 to 13 games versus each divisional rival was perceived in some corners as advantageous.

This rationale seemed to make sense in terms of less games versus each AL East team giving the Blue Jays a chance to increase their overall wins total. Unfortunately for them, the reality of the new schedule format has not had the desired results to date.

The revamped schedule has benefited all five divisional teams, with no one below .500 as of June 7. Three AL East teams currently sit in a playoff spot, but this doesn't include Toronto, who are three games back of the final wild card place.

The biggest reason for this is the Blue Jays' record when they do face other AL East teams. Their 6-15 record is poorest in the division, five losses worse than both the Yankees and Red Sox.

As such, it's all very well the Blue Jays being tied for most wins outside their division, both in the AL East specifically and the Majors as a whole. However, it ultimately won't help them if they can't find a way to beat their divisional opponents more consistently, whether they are playing them less or not.