3 reasons to believe in the Blue Jays' hot start this year

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The Blue Jays are off to an excellent start this year, with a 21-16 record as of Friday morning. While they may only be fourth in the AL East, they are in a wild card spot and have the seventh-best winning percentage in the majors.

The question is, do you view the Jays' strong start as a sign of things to come, or just smoke and mirrors? Here are three reasons to firmly believe they will continue to win on a consistent basis and if anything, improve:

Playing away

Thanks to renovations at Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays started their 2023 campaign with a 10-game road trip. It equaled the longest in franchise history to begin a season.

The reason for the elongated road trip was because the Blue Jays themselves requested it, to ensure renovations were completed. As a result, they were the last team in the majors to play their home
opener this year.

This start to the season has led to an unusual situation where the Blue Jays have played 25 of their first 37 games on the road. While their record in those 25 games is just 12-13, there is still reason for
encouragement.

Consider that 55 percent (69 games) of the Blue Jays' remaining 125 fixtures will be played within the friendly confines of Rogers Centre. To this point, they have a strong 9-3 record at home.

This bodes well for a team which in general plays well at home. Last season for example, only three American League teams had better home records.

It also helps more specifically, when considering the competition faced within their own division, the strongest in the majors. While the number of games versus the AL East has been reduced this year, all five teams currently have a winning record.

As such, the Blue Jays need any advantage they can get. Undoubtedly, more remaining home games than anyone else both in their division and the AL in general counts as a key one.

The starting pitching

The Blue Jays' rotation entered the 2023 campaign with the potential to be one of the strongest in the game. And with good reason, especially with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman at the top of the order.

Manoah was coming off a first full season where he was named an All-Star and a AL Cy Young finalist. Meanwhile, Gausman had shown why the Blue Jays signed him to a five-year, $110M deal.

José Berríos had a tough 2022 campaign, but was expected to return to the form he showed a year earlier and during his time in Minnesota. Yusei Kikuchi was admittedly a disappointment during his first season with the Blue Jays, but this was still a talented pitcher who had been named an All-Star in 2021 for the Mariners.

Even the loss of Ross Stripling was not expected to be too much of an issue, after signing Chris Bassitt to replace him. Bassitt was an All-Star in 2021, with a career winning record and an ERA hovering around the 3.50 range.

With this all said, the Blue Jays rotation is off to a very strange start this season. Manoah and Kikuchi have effectively swapped places, with Manoah's mechanics failing him up to this point and Kikuchi leading all starters in team wins and ERA.

Berríos has yet to entirely bounce back from last year's struggles, although there is some encouragement. The quality of his pitches have improved across the board, but been compromised by just plain bad luck up to this point.

Bassitt's ERA is off purely because of his disastrous 10-hit, nine-run Jays debut, but he's pitched five quality outings out of six since and has the second-most wins among all starters. This leaves Gausman, who has been the one player to pitch at a level consistent with his success from last season.

As a collective, the Blue Jays starters rank 13th in the Majors in both ERA and WHIP entering Friday's slate of games, but they are capable of so much more. Assuming Manoah solves his mechanical issues and Berríos starts getting some good fortune, they should take their projected place as one of the top rotations in the Majors.

Competing with the best

The Tampa Bay Rays are undoubtedly one of the best-run organizations in the majors. On a streak of four consecutive playoff berths, they continue to compete despite low budgets and attendances.

This year has seen the Rays take their play to another level, tying the modern-era record of 13 consecutive wins to begin a season. There is no denying they are the cream of the crop up to this point.

In the strongest division in baseball, the Rays found themselves entering Friday with a league-best 30-9 record. However, despite an early eight-game lead over the Blue Jays, there is nothing to be fearful of.

This is because it was the Blue Jays themselves, who stopped the Rays' season-opening winning streak at 13 games. The two teams met in Toronto, with the hosts winning 6-3 in the first of a three-game series.

The Blue Jays went ahead in the very first inning and never looked back, at one point leading 6-1 through six innings. Bo Bichette went an incredible 5-for-5 at the plate, while Berríos had one of his better starts, giving up just four hits, no walks and one run in five innings.

The Blue Jays followed this up with an equally impressive 5-2 win the next day. Kikuchi led the way with one of his best games in a Jays uniform, allowing just four hits, a walk and one run in six
innings.

Critics will conceivably point to the Rays winning the finale 8-1, along with the Blue Jays having home advantage in general as the reason they won the series. However, it's worth noting the Rays are 10-4 versus other opponents on the road up to this point.

Honorable mention – Matt Chapman

There is every chance Matt Chapman will be gone after this season, especially with how he is playing right now. He is going to receive a lot of lucrative offers, which the Blue Jays may not be able -- or want -- to compete with.

Chapman is on course for a career-best year in a variety of statistical categories and was named AL Player of the Month for April. He leads the Blue Jays in doubles, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, OPS and WAR.

The three-time Gold Glove winner has indicated there is mutual interest in a contract extension. Just in case however, it's best the Blue Jays do everything possible to take advantage of his hot hand in their bid to compete for the World Series.

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