3 players the Blue Jays should keep a close eye on and 2 to avoid as the deadline nears

As we enter July to begin the second half of the MLB season, the Toronto Blue Jays have done quite well to stay afloat in the playoff chase, even though they have been quite inconsistent with both their offence and pitching throughout the 2023 season so far. Despite sitting in fourth place with a 44-37 record in the highly competitive AL East, the Jays still find themselves right in the thick of things, sitting in the third wild card spot in the American League behind the Yankees in the second wild card spot just by percentage points.

As the trade deadline approaches in just a few weeks on August 1st, the Jays should definitely be looking to upgrade their team as they battle it out for their playoff lives down the stretch. However, with many question marks that still remain with respect to their struggling offence, along with their adequate yet inconsistent pitching, who should the Jays keep their tabs on for any potential trade options?

Looking at their positional players, they appeared to be all set with their starters at each position, so unless some huge blockbuster move involving one of their core starters is initiated, the Jays will be looking mainly to add potentially just a power bat off the bench or a backup outfielder/utilityman, but probably nothing of much significance that would rapidly improve their offensive output.

However, with their starting rotation being down a man, along with a revolving door of bullpen arms as a result of injuries, pitching appears to be the main area of focus that should be undertaken to help improve the team. In particular, Jays’ GM Ross Atkins had recently stated that they are definitely looking for starting pitching help as they look to deal, while keeping in mind the progress and uncertainty of both Alek Manoah and Hyun Jin Ryu as potential in-house solutions down the road at the same time.

With that in mind, here we take a look at potential pitching help the Jays should keep a close eye on in the coming weeks.

3 players to keep an eye on

Max Scherzer, New York Mets

The Jays have shown in the past that they don’t shy away from big name, top dollar candidates when it comes to acquiring pitching help in the past. Among those that quickly come to mind in the recent decade include David Price and José Berríos, with the Jays having to deplete quite the prospect capital each time. With the recent poor stretch by the New York Mets, who had gone 6-17 in their past 23 games, dropping them to fourth place in the NL East and almost 9 games out of a playoff spot, it appears more and more they will be sellers come this year’s trade deadline.

Surprisingly, news have come out from New York that Max Scherzer is open to waiving his no-trade clause so that he can be traded to a contending team under the right circumstances. Although he has struggled a bit so far this year, he still sports a strong record of 7-2 with a 3.95 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, with 76 strikeouts over 70.2 innings. Added to the fact that he is a three-time Cy Young winner, along with a breadth of postseason experience, including a World Series win back in 2019 with the Washington Nationals, Scherzer would be a great addition to any contending team.

One doesn’t have to look any further than just two years ago, when Scherzer waived his no-trade clause to join the Los Angeles Dodgers, in which he was dynamite, going 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, giving up only 15 earned runs, five home runs, eight walks and 89 strikeouts in 11 starts down the stretch. Perhaps he can do something similar and work wonders for the Jays if they are fortunate enough to acquire his services to round out their starting rotation for the stretch run.

Josh Hader, San Diego Padres

It may sound like a dream proposition, but Josh Hader would be a jackpot addition to the Jays’ bullpen if circumstances can bring about it to happen. For the San Diego Padres, despite having a loaded lineup featuring perennial superstars in Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts, overall they have been a huge disappointment for much of the season thus far. Thought to be strong contenders for the present and beyond, they are currently 37-43 and sit in fourth place, 10.5 games behind the division leading Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West, and an astounding 7.5 games behind the closest wild card spot.

As the season becomes further and further out of reach for the Padres, Hader becomes their strongest potential trade chip when the deadline rolls around. He has been one of the premium relievers in the game for the past seven years, not to mention his exceptional lifetime strikeout rate of 15.1 per nine innings is nothing the Jays currently have can even come close to that. He did have one mediocre season just this past year, but his bounce back performance so far this year has proved it was just an anomaly for his career track record. To date, he has purely dominated with a miniscule 1.26 ERA, with a 0.942 WHIP, 326 ERA+, giving up only four earned runs all year, with 14 walks, 42 strikeouts and 18 saves in 28.2 innings.

It will definitely be costly for the Jays to obtain the services of a rare breed such as Hader, but because of his superb shutdown and strikeout ability that is quite unmatched across the league, it may be worth the shot. With Hader, he could form a three-headed monster along with Erik Swanson and Jordan Romano to shut down any game that goes beyond the sixth inning and become almost an automatic win for the ballclub each time.

2 players to avoid at all costs

Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals

With the Kansas City Royals practically out of the playoff race ever since the year began, the bulk of their roster is basically available if teams were willing to call for help. But specifically, one intriguing pitching option that could draw a team’s interest is that of former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. Greinke has had an illustrious career that has spanned two decades where he has brought his strong work ethic and winning mentality to whichever team he pitched for. We have even speculated earlier this year that Greinke could be the missing piece of the puzzle to help the Jays in their championship aspirations.

But one thing that could be on his mind as his career begins to wind down is that he has yet to get that one World Series ring that has eluded him the past 20 years despite playing for strong contending teams such as the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers. As a result, he may be willing to give it one last shot with a contending team to make it happen before he calls it a career. It may be tempting for the Jays to inquire about the six-time All-Star and six-time Gold Glover, especially after seeing his effective season he produced just last year at the age of 37, along with his stellar pitching pedigree from the past, but common sense says they should steer clear of him.

For the 2023 season, Greinke finally appears to no longer have it anymore, pitching to a 1-8 record with a 5.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, giving up 48 earned runs, a whopping 15 home runs, with 11 walks and 61 strikeouts over 81.1 innings in 16 starts. With those numbers, the Jays would probably be even better off testing the waters of Bowden Francis or one of their farmhands as a starter than give Greinke the chance to be on their team. Only time will tell when Greinke admits his time is done, but when he does, he definitely will not be wearing a Blue Jays uniform for sure.

Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals

People may find it surprising to see Jack Flaherty on this list as a potential trade target to avoid, especially when teams appear to be actively pursuing him in trade talks in recent weeks. After all, Flaherty has shown in the past to be a strong, front-end of the rotation arm and is still at a very young age of 27. With the St. Louis Cardinals pretty much out of the playoff race already halfway through the season, they will definitely be looking to retool their roster and net some assets that can help them for future success in the years to come, while shortening the time of their potential rebuild at the same time, since they have been pretty much perennial contenders like the New York Yankees.

Everybody seems to want Flaherty, but the Jays should try their best to avoid him at all costs. In recent years, he has become quite injury-prone, with repeated shoulder injuries that put him out of commission for long stretches in both 2021 and 2022. The most worrisome part was the fact that the three shoulder injuries all happen to be recurring on his same right pitching shoulder, which could potentially have long-term repercussions in terms of his future effective and performance for his career.

Now back in action for 2023, with a clean bill of health, Flaherty has not regained his dominant form prior to 2021. Through 15 starts, he has accumulated a 4.95 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, giving up 44 earned runs, six home runs, an uncharacteristic high number of walks with 44, to go along with 80 strikeouts over 80 innings pitched, easily his worst numbers in his career ever since his debut season back in 2017. Going more in depth with advanced metrics with Statcast, his xERA/xwOBA ranks in the 27th percentile, his K% in the 43rd percentile, his BB% in the 10th percentile, his chase rate in the super low 8th percentile, and fastball velocity down in the 24th percentile (as on average, his fastball has decreased almost two mph overall since 2019), with much of the metrics trending in the wrong direction for the past couple of years.

To make matters worse, his injury troubles appeared to have flared up again recently as he missed his recent start due to hip tightness. He appears to be headed towards the same trajectory as the once-promising Matt Harvey, who was never able to regain his dominance and effectiveness after enduring multiple injuries that ultimately derailed his career. More importantly, because the Cardinals will probably be asking for a premium for the services of Flaherty, this is a “sure loss” gamble the Jays simply cannot take.