3 Blue Jays prospects who should not be traded and 2 who should to help the team

As the trade deadline season approaches in a few weeks, the Toronto Blue Jays hopefully will be looking to upgrade their current roster in preparation for the stretch run. As potential buyers, they will likely make some trades at the expense of some highly regarded prospects in their minor league system.

Who are the untouchables, and who may be worth pushing the chips in? Here, we take a look at three prospects that the Jays should avoid at all costs to include in any trade package, and two prospects that are worth giving up if the right deal comes around to make a difference for the Blue Jays.

3 “Must keep” prospects

Ricky Tiedemann

Ricky Tiedemann was the Jays’ third round pick from the 2021 MLB Draft. Ever since joining the organization, Tiedemann has been the club's top-ranked pitching prospect. He certainly has not disappointed as he had an outstanding 2022 where he advanced through three minor league levels. Collectively, he pitched to a 2.17 ERA, 0.864 WHIP, giving up only 39 hits, 19 earned runs, with 29 walks and 117 strikeouts over 78.2 innings in 18 starts. He has endured more adversity in his sophomore year in 2023 in his four starts with Double-A New Hampshire, before going onto the IL with biceps inflammation in early May and have remained out since.

Despite having a rough start to his 2023 year, Tiedemann is one prospect that the Jays should declare “untouchable” in any trade talks. With the current Jays’ starting pitching depth approaching worrisome levels, along with Tiedemann being the one pitching prospect in the organization that’s most likely a sure thing to make the major leagues, the Jays can ill-afford to give up any more elite starting pitchers coming up through the system. As long as he avoids any more injury troubles, he could potentially make his debut in MLB later this year, or at the latest, in 2024. Not only that, but he would be the first lefty homegrown pitcher with star potential for the Jays since Ricky Romero over a decade and a half ago. So no matter what, key is to keep him at all costs.

Orelvis Martinez

Orelvis Martinez has been an intriguing prospect for the Jays, ever since they signed him as an international prospect out of the Dominican Republic back in 2018. He profiles to be a power-hitting, productive ballplayer and had been often compared to former MLB star third baseman Adrian Beltre. He had his breakout year in the minors in 2021 when he batted .261 with an OPS of .895, along with 66 runs scored, 26 doubles, 28 home runs, and 87 RBI across two minor league levels. Then when the year of 2022 came around, that was when he started developing the bad habits of just focussing on hitting for power, and not much else. In doing so, he still maintained his power production with 30 home runs and 76 RBI in 118 games.

However, his overall hitting stats fell dramatically, with a batting average falling towards the Mendoza Line, an OPS in the low .700s, and striking out a whopping 140 times. His hitting struggles carried over into the 2023 season, until he had recently turned a corner and have started to become a more effective hitter once again, rather than just hitting bombs and striking out.

As a result, Martinez should be another prospect the Jays should avoid including in any trade talks this summer. For the past three years, he has consistently being ranked in the top four among the Jays’ top prospects list. There’s a reason for that, as Martinez currently represents the most potent bat that the Jays have in their minor league system. With his untapped potential, along with his recent improvement at the plate, this is not the best time to give up on such a player. Especially when he could have been included in huge trades the past couple of years, but the Jays chose to give up top prospects Austin Martin and Gabriel Moreno instead while holding onto Martinez all this time. So if he wasn’t included then, he definitely should not be included now, as he could be the ideal replacement for Matt Chapman in the near future.

2 prospects to move

Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz has been a surprising prospect for the Jays, as he was selected in the 24th round of the 2019 MLB Draft. Horwitz has demonstrated great plate discipline, along with being a solid contact hitter ever since joining the organization. Often viewed as the “underdog”, Horwitz made rapid progression upwards in the Jays’ minor league system, eventually reaching Triple-A Buffalo in 2022. He may not have the greatest power, but he more than makes up for it by having one of the best hitting consistency in the Jays’ system. His batting average has hovered mainly above .275 and his OPS above .800, along with maintaining about a 1:1 ratio in walks to strikeouts throughout his career so far. Horwitz currently represents the most MLB-ready bat in the Jays’ minor league system right now.

For 2023, Horwitz is currently hitting .300 with an OPS of .826, along with 27 runs scored, two home runs, 34 RBI, three stolen bases, 42 walks and 46 strikeouts, all while awaiting his chance to be promoted to the big leagues. However, because of the position that he plays, which is mainly first base, his path to the majors is currently being blocked by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who most likely will be with the Jays for the foreseeable future. Alternatively, since his bat is ready, he could potentially be a left-handed DH specialist, but that spot is also being blocked by Brandon Belt this season. As a result, to not waste such a promising prospect with nowhere to play him, he could potentially help the Jays recoup valuable help and assets to the team at the trade deadline.

Tucker Toman

Tucker Toman was the Jays’ second round pick from the 2022 MLB Draft. Despite being just 19 and having just joined the organization last year, he is currently ranked fifth among the Jays’ MLB top prospects list for 2023, showing that the kid has plenty of upside and potential waiting to be unearthed. He is also a switch-hitter, with his left-handed swing being more fluid than his right-handed swing, but he has taken strides in improving that in the past year. He had a decent debut with the FCL Blue Jays in 2022, as in 11 games, he hit .290 with four runs scored, three doubles and five RBI. Despite the small sample size and short stint with the Rookie league, Toman earned a promotion to start the 2023 season with the Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays, where they have planned to bring about his development as both a third baseman and shortstop.

For 2023, Toman had a decent April, but had struggled more with inconsistent hitting in the past month and a half, which was expected as it is all part of his growth and development in practically what should be still classified his rookie year in minor league ball. To date, he has posted a .226 batting average, .671 OPS, with 22 runs scored, eight doubles, two triples, two home runs, 23 RBI, two stolen bases, with 28 walks and 63 strikeouts.

He will definitely need some time as his game matures before he will make it to the big leagues, but at the same time, most likely Bo Bichette and Orelvis Martinez will be blocking his path by the time he gets there, as Bichette and Martinez are most likely the Jays starting shortstop and third baseman in the near future and beyond. Taking that into consideration, along with his present stock in the organization and unlimited potential, Toman could be an ideal trade chip to help the Jays land a solid starting pitcher or bullpen piece for the stretch run this year. It may hurt if he ultimately becomes the next Carlos Correa or Corey Seager, but if the return helps the Jays achieve their championship aspirations, it may be worth the shot.