3 Blue Jays players who will maintain their hot starts and 1 who won't

With the Toronto Blue Jays now 18 games into the 2023 season, there is still plenty of time for overreactions to early season performances, both good and bad. While the team has been on a rollercoaster ride en route to an 11-7 record, some individual performances in the early going have stood out for all the right reasons.

The question is, will these hot starts stick for the rest of the year, or are they just short-term apparitions that will fade in the dog days of summer?

Bo Bichette

Will he maintain his start? Yes

Bo Bichette has started 2023 where he left off in 2022, scorching hot at the plate.

The All-Star shortstop has played in all 18 games, hitting .372/.402/.577 with four home runs, 12 RBI and 11 runs scored. More impressive, he has struck out only 10 times in 82 plate appearances.

In the first five months of 2022, he struck out in almost a quarter of his at-bats, at a 24.3% clip. In September, he dropped that strikeout rate to a more modest 14.1%.

With his naturally aggressive approach at the dish, you'd be forgiven for expecting the other shoe to drop and the strikeout rate to climb back up. Don't hold your breath. With a full offseason and training camp, Bichette has refined his approach at the plate even more since the end of last year when he found himself and began terrorizing opposing pitchers. This year his strikeout rate is an impressive 12.2%.

So, the 25-year-old who led the American League in hits in each of the past two seasons is now even better with the bat. It's unsurprising, then, that Bichette is tied for the major league lead in hits with 29.

How can we be sure that he'll maintain the hot start? Just look at his spray chart. He's hitting balls to the opposite field at a 44% clip, 10 points above his career rate. Those strikeouts have turned into hits to right field.

Sure, Bichette will slump at some point, but if he maintains this approach, he'll be unstoppable over the balance of the season.

Jordan Romano

Will he maintain his start? Yes

Aside from the crazy finale of the road trip against the Angels, Jordan Romano has done his job closing out games in the early going. He has looked good coming out of the bullpen (and not just his new theatrical entrance), racking up a league-leading seven saves, with a pair of wins and 12 strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings of work.

Now in his third season as the team's closer, the Markham native has started the year with a 30.8% strikeout rate, up from 28.3% in 2022. His swinging strike rate is also up, from 14.4% to an elite 21.7%, while his called and swinging strike rate is up to 38.5% from 30.1%.

Romano's slider looks sharp, with above-average 105 Stuff+ and 102 Location+ ratings, leading to a 112 Pitching+ rating. He's generating a 47.4% whiff rate with the pitch.

Sitting at 97 mph, his four-seam fastball has an outstanding 151 Stuff+ score, despite having a below-average 89 Location+ score. The stuff on his fastball will most likely come down (last year he had a 136 Stuff+), but that should help him to locate the pitch better like he was able to in 2022 when he had a 99 Location+ rating.

His ability to limit hard contact this year has been even more impressive than the swings and misses. His average exit velocity of 78.5 mph leads all qualified relievers, and of the 23 batted balls, only three have been hit hard (over 95 mph). With zero barrels given up and a launch angle of 4.5 degrees, Romano's keeping the ball in the yard and taking advantage of the improved defense behind him.

Despite a 2.89 ERA, courtesy of the Angels, his xERA currently sits at 1.84. His .304 BABIP indicates that he could be due for a slight positive regression, so he could even improve on his solid start to the year.

Romano doesn't get the respect he deserves and should be mentioned in the top closer discussion every year. His 66 saves rank him fifth since the beginning of the 2021 season, and among the top 30 saves leaders over that time, he ranks second with a 2.18 ERA.

Fans should continue to expect more of the same elite closing for the remainder of the season.

Kevin Kiermaier

Will he maintain his start? No

The newest Blue Jays fan favorite Kevin Kiermaier has had a dream beginning to his tenure in Toronto. Through 13 starts, the long-time Tampa Bay Ray is hitting .327/.327/.481 with one home run, six RBI, seven runs scored, a stolen base and a 125 wRC+.

So far, Kiermaier has been a revelation hitting out of the nine-hole in the Jays lineup, displaying superb base running skills and hustle.

Not to mention his stellar defense, including his fantastic over-the-wall home-run-robbing catch in his first game at Rogers Centre as a member of the home team.

Despite all the well-deserved love and adoration through the first few weeks of the season, the underlying numbers suggest that Kiermaier is playing over his head with his start at the plate.

Let's start with the batting average. With a .327 average and on-base percentage, Kiermaier has been arguably the best ninth hitter in the league up to this point. Unfortunately, as a career .249 hitter, that number will inevitably come down. Even in his best offensive year, back in 2017, he hit .276.

His expected batting average is .262. Would the Jays take that in their nine-spot? Definitely. With all the intangibles he brings, if the 10-year veteran can maintain an average in the .260 to .275 range, it would be considered a win.

With an expected wOBA of .263, his current mark of .349 is due to come down closer to his career .309 wOBA.

As for slugging percentage, it seems his current .481 mark is due for some regression. The talented center fielder's expected slugging percentage is .341. If he finishes there, it would be the lowest of his career.

The 32-year-old has had some luck to start his Blue Jays career, currently sporting a .410 BABIP. If that seems high, it's because it is. The league BABIP is .299 on the year.

Kiermaier will more than earn his keep with his glove in center field and his ability on the basepaths but don't expect the same big offensive averages all season. If he manages to maintain the offense, it will indeed be a pleasant surprise.