3 Blue Jays players who will maintain their hot starts and 1 who won't

Matt Chapman

Will he maintain his start? Yes

Matt Chapman came into 2023 with a plan, and so far, it's working. Fans thought they knew what they would get from the soon-to-be 30-year-old, with expectations set for another 25-30 home runs, a bunch of strikeouts and a low batting average.

In a surprising turn of events, Chapman has started his campaign, a contract year no less, off with a bang. Through 17 games, he's hitting a ridiculous .415/.472/.785 with five home runs, 17 RBI, 13 runs scored and a 252 wRC+.

His average exit velocity is sitting at 97.5 mph, which puts him first in the majors among qualified hitters. He's barreling the ball at a 32% rate, well clear of his 12% career mark, and his hard-hit rate is way up at 68%.

His Statcast page is a sea of red. He's in the top 1% of the league in multiple categories, from the previously mentioned average exit velocity to his hard hit rate, barrel rate, expected wOBA and expected slugging percentage. Even his expected batting average sits in the 99th percentile while his max exit velocity is in the 94th percentile.

Chapman's taking a page from Bichette's opposite field-heavy approach. He's focusing less on pulling for power, which he did with almost half his batted balls last year. Instead, he's driving the ball all over the field. Both his center and opposite-field batted ball rates are up to start the year.

This approach has let him wait longer on pitches and helped keep his strikeout rate down to a below-league-average 20.8%, a reduction from last year's 27.4%. Check out this thread by Sportsnet's Chris Black for a video explanation of how this new approach works for Chapman.

Is Chapman going to maintain these otherworldly numbers all season? No, because baseball is hard, and better players than him haven't done anything like that.

However, if you look at his expected stats (.365 xBA, .815 xSLG and .517 xwOBA), his new approach at the plate suggests that he'll not only be a much tougher out this season, but he'll continue to be an elite level producer during what could turn out to be a career year across the board.

Jordan Romano

Will he maintain his start? Yes

Aside from the crazy finale of the road trip against the Angels, Jordan Romano has done his job closing out games in the early going. He has looked good coming out of the bullpen (and not just his new theatrical entrance), racking up a league-leading seven saves, with a pair of wins and 12 strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings of work.

Now in his third season as the team's closer, the Markham native has started the year with a 30.8% strikeout rate, up from 28.3% in 2022. His swinging strike rate is also up, from 14.4% to an elite 21.7%, while his called and swinging strike rate is up to 38.5% from 30.1%.

Romano's slider looks sharp, with above-average 105 Stuff+ and 102 Location+ ratings, leading to a 112 Pitching+ rating. He's generating a 47.4% whiff rate with the pitch.

Sitting at 97 mph, his four-seam fastball has an outstanding 151 Stuff+ score, despite having a below-average 89 Location+ score. The stuff on his fastball will most likely come down (last year he had a 136 Stuff+), but that should help him to locate the pitch better like he was able to in 2022 when he had a 99 Location+ rating.

His ability to limit hard contact this year has been even more impressive than the swings and misses. His average exit velocity of 78.5 mph leads all qualified relievers, and of the 23 batted balls, only three have been hit hard (over 95 mph). With zero barrels given up and a launch angle of 4.5 degrees, Romano's keeping the ball in the yard and taking advantage of the improved defense behind him.

Despite a 2.89 ERA, courtesy of the Angels, his xERA currently sits at 1.84. His .304 BABIP indicates that he could be due for a slight positive regression, so he could even improve on his solid start to the year.

Romano doesn't get the respect he deserves and should be mentioned in the top closer discussion every year. His 66 saves rank him fifth since the beginning of the 2021 season, and among the top 30 saves leaders over that time, he ranks second with a 2.18 ERA.

Fans should continue to expect more of the same elite closing for the remainder of the season.

Kevin Kiermaier

Will he maintain his start? No

The newest Blue Jays fan favorite Kevin Kiermaier has had a dream beginning to his tenure in Toronto. Through 13 starts, the long-time Tampa Bay Ray is hitting .327/.327/.481 with one home run, six RBI, seven runs scored, a stolen base and a 125 wRC+.

So far, Kiermaier has been a revelation hitting out of the nine-hole in the Jays lineup, displaying superb base running skills and hustle.

Not to mention his stellar defense, including his fantastic over-the-wall home-run-robbing catch in his first game at Rogers Centre as a member of the home team.

Despite all the well-deserved love and adoration through the first few weeks of the season, the underlying numbers suggest that Kiermaier is playing over his head with his start at the plate.

Let's start with the batting average. With a .327 average and on-base percentage, Kiermaier has been arguably the best ninth hitter in the league up to this point. Unfortunately, as a career .249 hitter, that number will inevitably come down. Even in his best offensive year, back in 2017, he hit .276.

His expected batting average is .262. Would the Jays take that in their nine-spot? Definitely. With all the intangibles he brings, if the 10-year veteran can maintain an average in the .260 to .275 range, it would be considered a win.

With an expected wOBA of .263, his current mark of .349 is due to come down closer to his career .309 wOBA.

As for slugging percentage, it seems his current .481 mark is due for some regression. The talented center fielder's expected slugging percentage is .341. If he finishes there, it would be the lowest of his career.

The 32-year-old has had some luck to start his Blue Jays career, currently sporting a .410 BABIP. If that seems high, it's because it is. The league BABIP is .299 on the year.

Kiermaier will more than earn his keep with his glove in center field and his ability on the basepaths but don't expect the same big offensive averages all season. If he manages to maintain the offense, it will indeed be a pleasant surprise.