3 Blue Jays pending free agents who should be brought back and 1 who should not

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As we approach the final month of 2023 season, the Toronto Blue Jays are currently in good position to contend for a playoff spot down the stretch. Despite having some ups and downs throughout the season, the entire group has in general done decently well with their current 71-59 record.

At the end of the season, the Blue Jays will have some key players entering free agency. Among those, there will be some that the Jays should try their best to retain to help maintain the success they had brought to the team this season, whereas for others, it may be about time to move on from them.

Here, we take a look at three pending free agents the team should bring back for the 2024 season and one pending free agent that they probably shouldn’t for the team’s long-term perspective.

3 players to re-sign this offseason

Kevin Kiermaier

Since joining the Jays this past offseason, Kevin Kiermaier has practically gone from public enemy number one to unanimous fan favourite among the Jays’ faithful in less than a season’s worth of playing time. Brought in to help augment the Jays’ outfield defence, Kiermaier has done exactly what he was supposed to do and more. As expected, he has been among the team’s top two in defensive runs saved with 13 and has committed only three errors all season, all while making spectacular plays in the outfield at the same time.

More surprisingly has been his offensive output at the bottom part of the lineup. Known mainly for his defensive acumen, Kiermaier has actually given the Jays an added boost in terms of run production for the season. For the 2023 season, he has hit a solid .267 with a .739 OPS, along with 42 runs scored, 14 doubles, five triples, six home runs, 30 RBI and going 11-for-11 in stolen bases. If he hadn’t been out of the lineup for a few times during the course of the season due to minor injuries, he probably could have done even more.

Nevertheless, the obvious value that Kiermaier provides both from an offensive and defensive standpoint for the Jays is quite evident, so it should be of the team’s best interest to try and get him to re-sign with the ballclub as soon as possible at the conclusion of the current season. That way, in addition to being able to continue to witness his excellence on the field, we can see him keep doing his wonderful deeds off the field as well.

Whit Merrifield

Entering the 2023 season, Jays’ utilityman Whit Merrifield was actually an unknown wild card for the team. In the previous season in 2022, Merrifield endured one of his worst years statistically in his career in which he hit .250, with a .673 OPS, 70 runs scored, 11 home runs, 58 RBI and 16 stolen bases. When the Jays acquired him at the trade deadline, it was an under-the-radar move that practically no one was expecting, since he appeared to be trending downwards in the latter half of his career.

At the start of this season, the Jays deployed Merrifield as their team’s super utilityman, as he found playing time at second base, along with spot starts in the outfield whenever needed. But to the surprise of everyone, he would be revitalized and regain his prior All-Star form seen from his earlier year with the Kansas City Royals. Not only has Merrifield got his stroke and speed back, but he has been one of the team’s main catalyst in their offensive production throughout the season and had secured a spot in the everyday lineup as a result.

So far for 2023, Merrifield has hit an impressive .289/.332/.410 with a .742 OPS, 60 runs scored, 23 doubles, 11 home runs, 57 RBI and 23 stolen bases. He has even maintained his hitting consistency despite being put in various spots in the batting order. He was also selected to his third All-Star game in his career in recognition of his accomplishments. With his positional flexibility, along with his valuable run production, it will be a no-brainer for the Jays to keep Merrifield beyond the 2023 season. Therefore, with the mutual option that they have, it will definitely be the right move for both to exercise their option and get it done so that Merrifield can remain a Blue Jay at least for another year.

Brandon Belt

In the case of Brandon Belt, the majority of people wanted him gone at the start of the season when he struggled mightily coming out of the gate with his new team. Unbelievably, the 13-year veteran was striking out practically half of the time whenever he came to the plate and was even hitting below .100 at one point in time. But given his track record, where he has hit close to .260 while averaging close to 20 home runs and 70 RBI per season, the Jays strongly believed he would eventually work out of his tremendous slump.

As shown from time and time again, patience is a virtue, as Belt has turned his season around completely and has become a key contributor to the ballclub. For the 2023 season, he has compiled a solid .254 batting average, with a strong .849 OPS, along with 46 runs scored, 22 doubles, 15 home runs and 37 RBI. In particular, he has been an unstoppable force for the ballclub currently down the stretch with some key clutch hits to help lead the team to success.

Looking ahead, some may believe that the Jays may be better off in promoting someone like Spencer Horwitz from within the organization to take the place of Belt for next season. But one has to remember, Horwitz is still an unproven commodity despite his recent breakout year in the Jays’ minor league system. However, Belt is already a proven commodity, along with his added leadership and wealth of experience which included three postseason runs and two World Series championships under his belt. Also, at his age and current playing status as he winds down his career, the Jays should be able to bring him back on a short-term deal while giving him all the opportunity to capture another World Series ring before his eventual retirement.

One player who should not be coming back

Matt Chapman

Finally, in the case of Jays’ third baseman Matt Chapman, he certainly had the best start ever to the season for his career. Chapman was quite literally unstoppable for pretty much the whole calendar month of April, resulting in his capture of both AL Player of the Week and AL Player of the Month honours. His spectacular start had the Jays both happy and worried at the same time. They were happy since Chapman was leading the team to many victories, but worried because at the rate he was going, he was most likely going to price himself out of town by the end of the season when he hits free agency.

Unfortunately, ever since May rolled around, Chapman has fallen back to earth and has been pretty much just average for the rest of the season up until now. There’s no doubt he can still deliver Gold Glove-caliber defence on the field, as shown by his 11 DRS on the season. However, his lack of production for the rest of the season has left a lot to be desired, especially from a power-hitting, run-producing player like Chapman. For the year, he has hit a respectable .249 with a .770 OPS, along with 61 runs scored, 36 doubles, 15 home runs and 50 RBI. All of the numbers seem impressive, but at this rate, he is actually currently on pace for his lowest home run and RBI totals since his rookie season back in 2017. Even more worrisome is the fact that if you take away his torrid start in April, Chapman’s accumulated stats line prior to Saturday’s game looks like this: .210/.300/.361/.661 with 44 runs scored, 10 home runs, 28 RBI, 42 walks and 121 strikeouts in 96 games played.

Looking ahead to the available crop of third baseman for the 2023-24 free agent class, Chapman is by far the best option available, with everyone else a distant second or beyond. As a result, there will no doubt be a bidding war for his services, given his defensive prowess and despite his inconsistent power production at the plate. However, if his production since May is any indication of what he will provide the Jays with regards to offence in the coming years, then there are certainly some huge red flags that have been raised. As a result, he may not provide the full value of the projected contract that he will get.

In addition, if the Jays intend to give top prospects such as Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez a shot at the big leagues in the near future, Chapman will need to go. That is because if Chapman is signed to a long-term contract, which is what has been predicted by many experts, there won’t be a spot open on the left side of the infield for nearly the next decade with Bo Bichette firmly at shortstop and also expected to be extended to a long-term deal. In addition, the amount of money to keep Chapman in Toronto would probably prevent the team from addressing any other needs during the offseason, as the deal with no doubt exhaust most of the team’s resources in one shot. As a result, it may be a wise move for the Jays to pass on Chapman in free agency, as much as it may hurt to lose him for nothing.

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