2 reasons for optimism, 3 for concern as the Blue Jays enter final five weeks of 2023

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Presently, with a tidy 71-60 record, the Toronto Blue Jays sit in third place in the AL East division, two games ahead of their arch rivals the Boston Red Sox. In addition, they find themselves trailing both the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros by 2.5 games for the second and third Wild Card spots in the American League playoff race. As they head into the final stretch of the season in pursuit of a postseason berth, there are currently certain aspects that could work in their favour, whereas other aspects that could be a cause for concern.

Here, we take a look at two things we are grateful for that could help the Blue Jays down the stretch, and three things that could spell the end of their season if they don’t get their act together soon enough.

2 things working in favour for the Jays

Upcoming schedule against underachieving ballclubs

Starting on August 28th, the Jays will begin a string of games against divisional bottom feeders in the Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals. On top of that, the Rockies, Athletics, and Royals are currently the three worst teams in the league based on their records. That doesn't mean the Jays should underestimate them, but it certainly presents a great opportunity for the Jays to fully take advantage of the weakest part of their schedule to put them firmly into a Wild Card playoff spot heading into the final three weeks of the season.

For the season, they hold a stellar 33-18 record against teams below a .500 winning percentage. In addition, with the first two series being against interleague teams, they also sport a strong record of 26-14 against National League foes. As a result, this important stretch could potentially make or break the Jays season, so it will be critical for the team to get as many wins as possible in the upcoming two weeks. Anything less than a winning record during this stretch would put them possibly in an insurmountable hole to get out of.

Pitching has been surprisingly elite

Throughout the 2023 season, it has certainly felt like the Jays' pitching hasn't been consistent all year, with flashes of brilliance mixed in with incompetent struggles along the way. Even though It may not seem like it at times, if we took a careful look at the statistics with regards to Jays’ pitching for 2023, they have surprisingly been near the top of the class in the league.

They are currently among the top eight in all of MLB in various statistical pitching categories, including team ERA (2nd), saves (tied for 1st), opponents batting average (tied for 6th), WHIP (8th), earned runs given up (3rd), strikeouts (2nd), K/BB ratio (5th), SO/9 ratio (3rd), BB/9 ratio (8th), shutouts (tied for 3rd) and holds (2nd). That's actually quite impressive, considering the fact that the Jays had quite a few struggling pitchers in Alek Manoah, Adam Cimber, Zach Pop, Nate Pearson, Mitch White and others along the way as well.

As the saying goes, pitching and defence wins championships, so if the Jays have their pitching already firing on all cylinders, they have practically won half the battle already. With their revamped bullpen with the additions of key deadline acquisitions Génesis Cabrera and Jordan Hicks, along with the dominant return of Hyun Jin Ryu to their starting rotation, the entire Jays pitching staff could be their main strength down the stretch. The defence has been quite solid as well, so if the hitters can just start giving them enough run support and do their part, the Jays should find themselves in the driver’s seat going forward.

3 things that could work against the Jays

Inconsistent run production

Many of the Jays’ faithful have complained about the team’s hitting all season, along with the fact that they should hire a new hitting coach to get them to hit properly. Believe it or not, the ACTUAL hitting part hasn’t been an issue for the Blue Jays because they are actually ranked within the top 10 in the entire league in terms of team batting average (8th), on-base percentage (9th), and the total number of hits (6th). Their main issue is their ability to move baserunners along and their ability to drive them in.

Because of this deficiency, the Jays have ranked in the bottom half of the entire league in runs scored (17th), home runs (tied for 16th), RBI (17th), stolen bases (19th), and caught stealing (26th) for the bulk of the season. More worrisome is the fact that they are fourth last in the league in grounding into double plays and sacrifice hits and tied for dead last in sacrifice flies. So basically Jays’ hitters are getting the hits and getting on base, but they aren’t doing enough to advance the baserunners and convert them into valuable runs.

This obviously is related to their year-long struggle in hitting in the clutch with runners in scoring position, which has been another monumental problem on its own, as they are hitting only .249 with RISP to rank 21st in the league heading into Sunday's game. Nevertheless, if their offensive group doesn't turn all of this around soon enough, it could potentially be their nail in the coffin by year’s end and with their playoff hopes rapidly fading along with it.

Roster returning to full health, then here we go again...

For the 2023 season, we have seen many key players on the Jays’ roster miss time due to injuries, ranging from just a few days to an actual IL stint. As a matter of fact, for those that have been with the Jays all season, every single player on the roster other than Whit Merrifield, Daulton Varsho, and Cavan Biggio had endured at least one ailment along the way. By not being able to field their most optimal roster throughout the season, it could have limited the performance and success of the team for the year.

However, it appeared as though the fortunes had turned for the Jays when they finally got every key player back with a clean bill of health by the middle of August, with only Chad Green still waiting to be activated for the stretch run. Well, to the luck of the ballclub, disaster strikes again in the series against the Cleveland Guardians this past weekend. On Saturday, one of the Jays most reliable relievers in Erik Swanson went down with an injury and was later placed on the 15-day IL for thoracic spine inflammation. Next thing you know, both superstars Bo Bichette (right quad tightness) and Matt Chapman (right middle finger inflammation) would leave Sunday's game against the Guardians with apparent injuries as well.

As the Jays look to make their desperate push for the playoffs in these final few weeks of the season. it is crucial for them to have as many healthy bodies at their disposal as possible. But with key players on their roster going down like flies in a matter of days, it could severely hinder their ability to perform at their absolute best to secure important victories down the stretch. The Jays certainly hope the ailments are minor in nature and that they will be back to help the team as soon as possible. Otherwise, it could potentially be a rough ride to the finish for them.

Running the gauntlet against the beasts of the AL East to finish the season

As mentioned before, the upcoming two-week stretch against sub-par teams is vital for the Blue Jays because following that slew of games, they will have to face their demons once again as they play only AL East teams for the final three weeks of the season. With the MLB implementing a more balanced schedule for the 2023 season, each and every game within the same division becomes that much more crucial. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they haven’t had much success against their divisional rivals all season.

Overall, they have compiled a dismal 12-25 record against their divisional foes. The only good news is that the New York Yankees have gone on a complete tailspin recently in the month of August, so that they could be there for the taking come September when the Jays play them six times. In addition, they do not need to face the division-leading Baltimore Orioles any more, as they finished with a horrid 3-10 record against them for the season.

If the Jays are to have any chance in making the postseason, they cannot continue this losing trend against AL East opponents during those last three weeks of the season. As a result, it is about time the Jays step it up, disregard who their opponent is, and play to their utmost potential in every game from here on out. Anything less will probably spell disaster for the ballclub.

Overall, it will be up to the Blue Jays to determine if they are indeed contenders, and not pretenders, as they play out the final stretch of the season in the coming weeks.

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