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2 Blue Jays who have exceeded expectations and 2 who have fallen short through 50 games

By Edward Eng |
Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier
Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier / Vaughn Ridley/GettyImages
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Going into the 2023 season, the Toronto Blue Jays had quite the overhaul in their roster, swapping out strong, everyday run producers in Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for defensive-minded stalwarts Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, along with steady veteran presence of Brandon Belt. Their hope and focus was to change the dynamic look of the team to help them get to the next level, and at the same time, provide the leadership and motivation to help the team to succeed.

With that, the Jays indeed got off to a strong start to the 2023 season, posting their best record in April in a long time. However, since then, they have encountered some struggles more in an up and down month of May thus far, as they now currently hold a modest 26-24 record through 50 games into the season. Even with the winning record, four teams remained above them as they currently sit in last place in the uber-tough AL East division, having lost eight of their last ten games as well.

In looking at the performances of the players on the Jays’ roster that have contributed to their record, one could probably pinpoint many examples of those players that have been effectively producing and having a great year so far, and many that have been struggling somewhat and definitely underperforming for the most part of the season.

Here, we take a look at two players that have exceeded beyond what was expected of them, as well as two players that may not seem obvious at first thought, but have fallen short of what they were expected to produce thus far this year.

Exceeding Expectations

Kevin Kiermaier

Kevin Kiermaier was signed this past offseason by the Jays, primarily to shore up their outfield defence. Based on his resume, they weren’t expecting too much in terms of offence, so any little offensive output that he could provide would be an added bonus as a result. But boy, has he delivered big time and much, much more.

Hitting out of the nine hole for the majority of the season so far, Kiermaier has produced a .313 average, .841 OPS, an OPS+ of 135 (all career highs so far), to go along with 21 runs scored, five stolen bases, three home runs and 14 RBI. On any other team, he probably would have been moved up further in the lineup to maximize his production and contribution to the team, but the Jays preferred to have him in the nine slot to set the table for the big guns at the top of the lineup. In doing so, Kiermaier is probably currently one of the best nine-hole batters in all the league right now.

This is all without mentioning the fact that Kiermaier has also been providing exceptional defence to go along with his surprising offensive outburst, with 10 DRS already on the season and no errors committed over 334 innings played. Overall, he has definitely performed way above expectations, and as wild as it may sound, he is probably the Jays’ underrated MVP so far this season, getting it done on both sides of the field.

Exceeding Expectations

Whit Merrifield

At the beginning of the 2023 season, the role of Whit Merrifield on the Jays roster was uncertain, as he was expected to be utilized as a serviceable utilityman, filling in spots in the lineup when called upon. As a result, he was expected to get some rotational starts at second base, along with some spot starts in the outfield on days when the everyday starting outfielders were given a rest. In addition, not much was expected from Merrifield after he had his career worst season with the Kansas City Royals prior to being traded to the Jays at the 2022 trade deadline. He did have a two-week offensive spurt with the Jays near the end of September, but that was about it.

Now almost one-third into the 2023 season, Merrifield appeared to be rejuvenated and has surprised everyone in becoming the All-Star Merrifield of old. He has hit .288 with a .725 OPS, 24 runs scored, two home runs and 19 RBI. More importantly, he has regained his legs and has been tearing up the basepaths with 14 stolen bases already on the season, keeping the opposing team on their heels each time he got on base. In doing so, he has now secured a spot and become a mainstay in the Jays’ everyday lineup.

In addition, prior to the start of the season, much was expected from offseason acquisitions in Daulton Varsho and Brandon Belt to help carry the load and solidify the Jays’ offence. However, it has been Merrifield instead that has unexpectingly risen to the occasion to provide the Jays with that extra jump and boost to their offence in the middle of the lineup on a consistent basis this year.

Falling Short of Expectations

Alejandro Kirk

Alejandro Kirk was just coming off an incredible season in which he became a first-time All-Star, in addition to receiving his first ever Silver Slugger award. He set career highs in hits (134), doubles (19), home runs (14), RBI (63), and total bases (195). As a result, many were expecting more of the same or even more form him as he continued to build upon his successful career so far with the Jays, especially after their supposed heir to the catching position, Gabriel Moreno, was traded away this past offseason to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Unfortunately for Kirk, he has taken somewhat of a step backward this year to start the 2023 season, as he is currently posting career lows in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+. On the bright side, he is still demonstrating great plate discipline, with a BB/K ratio about 1:1, as well as providing decent run production with two home runs and 12 RBI. From Statcast observations, it appears as though he hasn’t been able to generate as much power from his swings this year, with exit velocities and launch angles way below his usual standards, leading to more ground outs like this:

If he was still developing like in his first couple of years in the big leagues, people would probably be more forgiving. However, because of his massive offensive output from last season, much more was expected from him, especially when Danny Jansen was struggling mightily to start the season. Now with Jansen appearing to have hurt his groin in the recent game against the Tampa Bay Rays, Kirk will be relied upon more heavily to backstop the Jays, so he will definitely need to readjust his hitting mechanics soon and step it up in the coming days.

Falling Short of Expectations

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Many people will find it surprising to see Vladimir Guerrero Jr. making this list; after all, he has been producing day in and day out these past few years. So why is he on here? Well, when you have been an AL MVP finalist in 2021, as well as two All-Star nominations, to go along with a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award, expectations inexplicably become sky-high from the players and fans everywhere. Anything short of what he produced from his 2021 season would be deemed underwhelming, as he is expected to carry the team on his back to success, similar to what superstar players like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani do with the Angels, and Aaron Judge with the Yankees.

For 2023, Guerrero came out of the gate firing on all cylinders, crushing the ball hard which led people to believe MVP Vladdy was finally back. However, he endured a couple of minor injuries in recent weeks, to go along with a semi-cold streak while the Jays were on their recent skid. For the season, Guerrero is still hitting .301, with an OPS of .867, 26 runs scored, eight home runs and 34 RBI, all strong and solid numbers. But before Tuesday’s outburst against the Rays, he was on pace for about 80 runs scored, 25 home runs, and 90 RBI, which was closer to what he produced last season, as opposed to his MVP-calibre one in 2021. Nevertheless, Guerrero has the ability to break out anytime soon and could put all his critiques to rest.

But as much as we can say that he has been performing just below expectations and thus, has been a little disappointing this year, nothing beats the heart, soul and attitude of this absolute gorgeous human being when he does heart-warming gestures and actions like that shown above.

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