Now we know where the Blue Jays stand against other Juan Soto suitors

The Toronto Blue Jays' 2024-25 offseason will officially kick into high gear as they meet Juan Soto this week, the top free agent in the market. There’s no doubt that landing Soto could change the franchise’s fortunes going forward, given the tremendous impact he would provide.

After all, he’s a former NL Rookie of the Year and MVP finalist, along with being a four-time All-Star and Silver Slugger winner. If that wasn’t convincing enough, his play during the postseason sure should have been. But that brings us to the question: How realistic are the Jays' chances of actually winning the Soto sweepstakes? Is it just a pipe dream, or is it much more plausible than what most think?

Now we know where the Blue Jays stand against other Juan Soto suitors

Thanks to The Athletic's Will Sammon, Patrick Mooney and Katie Woo, we now have a better idea of where the Jays stand against their main competition (subscription required). The suitors were broken down into five tiers after they spoke to several executives from various teams across the league, with Tier 1 being the greatest chance and Tier 5 being the least chance of landing Soto.

To start things off, at least the Jays don’t find themselves in the Tier 4 and 5 brackets, which belonged to teams ranging from doubtful to not happening at all. Those two brackets were occupied by a whopping 21 MLB teams, which is great news for Toronto, as it meant that almost two-thirds of the league was already out of the running. More notably among them included their division rivals Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, along with now supposedly perennial contenders in the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks.

In Tier 3, we find Soto’s former teams, the Washington Nationals and the San Diego Padres. Although it is not likely that he will be returning to his former clubs, his agent Scott Boras did have close relationships with both of their previous owners before both of their unfortunate passing in 2023. Both teams in the past were at least willing to spend for a possible extension for Soto, but didn’t end up coming to fruition.

Alas, in Tier 2, meaning that the chances of it happening have gotten a lot bigger, we have the Jays bundled in a group that also included the San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies and division rival Boston Red Sox. For this bracket, the teams all have the money and the big market to support such an acquisition. On top of that, they will likely be aggressive as they desperately hope to land a piece that could alter the landscape of the franchise for the next decade. 

Finally, in Tier 1, we find both New York teams and the reigning World Series champions Los Angeles Dodgers. The Athletic went further into breaking this tier down even more with the Yankees being the frontrunner, given how Soto had thrived and enjoyed being with the team in their postseason run this past season.

The Mets and Dodgers followed as the 1A and 1B options, with both teams willing to spend whatever it takes to land the superstar. The Dodgers’ strong pursuit of Shohei Ohtani from the last offseason is the perfect example.

As a result, what this all means for the Jays is that they are actually in quite good shape in the Soto sweepstakes. That is because there are only three other teams ranked higher in probability to sign Soto than their tier. Added to the fact that they are tied with three others in their own respective tier, it practically makes the Jays one of seven potential finalists.

Hopefully, by being one of the first to meet with Soto and his agent, the Jays can leave a strong enough impression this time around so that they don’t finish as the bridesmaid again this offseason.