New 2025 projections: 3 Blue Jays that will excel, 2 that will decline

One of the more prominent and frequently-cited projection systems used around Major League Baseball and its following is STEAMER. These projections are updated frequently and are used predominantly by FanGraphs as their primary projection system for players on an individual level.

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Toronto Blue Jays are facing a major organizational crossroads. The club saw most of their stars underperform and fight through injuries this past season and will need major bounce-backs all across the board for next year.

This is underlined by the fact that both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are entering their walk years and could very well be on the way out the door once the 2025 season comes to a close. Fortunately for all involved, the Blue Jays have made it clear that they intend to put a competitive unit out on the field so they can make the playoffs one last time during the Vlad-Bo days.

Let's check out what STEAMER has to say about the 2025 Blue Jays, especially when it comes to who's projected to be great and who fans might see experience a regression.

3 Blue Jays STEAMER projects will excel in 2025

Bo Bichette

No member of the Blue Jays needs a rebound more than Bichette does, especially if he's either going to be traded or hit the open market around this time next year. This past season, he hit .225 with a 71 wRC+ through 81 games in what was a dreadful, injury-filled campaign.

STEAMER projects Bichette will hit 20 home runs with 77 RBI across 143 games in 2025. His batting average is at .278 which is a bit lower than where he's been at in recent years, but it's a dramatic improvement from 2024. His 117 wRC+ would see him return to the days where he was comfortably better than league-average at the dish, too, which would be a welcomed sight for the Blue Jays, their fans and Bichette himself.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

In what is a surprise to nobody, Guerrero is expected to continue to do nothing but mash. The superstar just finished hitting 30 home runs while scoring 98 runs and driving in 103 of his own. His .323 batting average set a career-high and his 165 wRC+ had him 65 percent better than league-average.

For next year, STEAMER's got Vladdy doing a whole lot of the same. He looks to be tapping in to even more power, registering 33 home runs while keeping his runs driven in and runs scored numbers in line with where he was in 2024 - scoring 95 while driving in 104 more.

The .297 average STEAMER's got Guerrero posting, as well as his 154 wRC+, would both be good for the third-highest marks of his big league career. This is what a walk-year should look like for pending free agents, but the hope is certainly that the Blue Jays ink him to a long-term contract extension before he makes it to the open market.

Alejandro Kirk

It's been a few years since Kirk put together a full season when he's at the top of his game. In each of the past two seasons, he's posted a wRC+ that's worse than league-average, but his defensive prowess has sharpened and his offensive production has been an added bonus alongside what he can do behind the plate.

STEAMER is a big fan of Kirk's red-hot second half that earned him the starting role heading into 2025. He's projected to hit 11 home runs while driving in and scoring 49 runs apiece. Kirk's projected to raise his walk rate while simultaneously lowering his strikeout rate. It seems that STEAMER fully buys into what Kirk showed at the tail end of 2024, as his .271/.340/.413 line and 120 wRC+ would all be the best he's had since the 2022 season.

2 Blue Jays STEAMER projects will decline in 2025

Bowden Francis

There was a stretch during summer of 2024 that Francis looked like the very best starting pitcher in all of baseball. He came close to throwing not one but two no-hitters and was suddenly a completely unhittable hurler on the mound. He finished his first full season in the big leagues with a 3.30 ERA, 4.36 FIP and 122 ERA+ across 103.2 innings of work.

In what will be his first full season strictly as a starter, Francis is projected to come back down to earth quite a bit. Granted, his first-half numbers looked rough this past season, so it's possible that STEAMER is factoring in a lot of those performances into his 2025 numbers.

All told, he's projected to make 28 starts, posting a 4.32 ERA across 158 innings. STEAMER thinks his strikeouts per nine innings will experience an uptick, but he'll strikeout batters at a lower percentage and see his walk rate will also raise from 1.91 in 2024 to 2.50 in 2025. Additionally, batters hit just .195 off of Francis this past year but STEAMER thinks .246 is more realistic to expect from him entering next year.

Chad Green

As of right at this moment, Green seems to be the Blue Jays' closer in 2025 since Jordan Romano was non-tendered and no free agent pieces have been signed (yet). He saved 17 games while earning 53 total appearances, posting a 3.21 ERA and 4.29 FIP along the way.

The projection systems believe he's going to have a much smaller gap between the ERA and FIP, but not in a good way. STEAMER has Green's 2025 ERA at 4.03 while his FIP is at 4.11. That means he'll be performing much closer to what the expected metrics think he should be, but he's also expected to walk batters more frequently and see his strand rate dip, too.

Green's regression is not a significant one, but it's easy to see why projection systems believe an aging reliever with a ton of mileage on his arm is unable to perform at a super high level anymore.