MLB insider lays out promising plan for Blue Jays offseason if they whiff on Juan Soto

The MLB offseason got off to a relatively slow start, but the contest to sign superstar free agent Juan Soto is well underway. The Toronto Blue Jays are one of five teams known to have made an initial offer to Soto, hoping to add the four-time All-Star to their outfield for 2025 and beyond — but what if that doesn't happen?

On December 2, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal analyzed the free agency market outside of Soto and commented on the next steps for teams who end up missing out on the outfielder this winter, specifically projecting a backup plan for the Blue Jays.

"In December 2019, [the Blue Jays] pursued free-agent right-hander Gerrit Cole but ultimately signed another Scott Boras client, lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu," Rosenthal wrote. "It would not be surprising to see them follow the same blueprint if they failed to land Soto, adding [Corbin] Burnes or [Max] Fried as well as [Teoscar] Hernández or [Anthony] Santander."

The Blue Jays could target one of Corbin Burnes or Max Fried

It's hardly a secret that the Blue Jays are looking to add reinforcements to their starting rotation before the 2025 season, but there is a "shrinking supply of quality starters," as Rosenthal explained.

"With left-handers Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi off the board, the best remaining free-agent starters are Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea and Nathan Eovaldi," he wrote.

In the event that Soto signs with another team and, as a result, the Blue Jays have much more flexibility to spend in other places this offseason, Burnes and Fried are the obvious best options to bolster the starting rotation. So which of the two hurlers should the Blue Jays target this winter?

In his first season with the Baltimore Orioles after being traded from the Milwaukee Brewers last offseason, Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 181 strikeouts in 194.1 innings of work. Coming off three consecutive seasons posting 200-plus strikeouts (2021-23), Burnes' strikeout rate continued to decline for the fourth straight year to 23.1% in 2024, having peaked at 36.7% in 2020. Still, he earned his fourth consecutive All-Star selection and finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting.

Fried also had a strong season in 2024, going 11-10 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 166 strikeouts in 174.1 innings pitched for the Atlanta Braves. He received the second All-Star selection of his career, and appeared in the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season.

Throughout his career, Burnes has achieved a number of impressive milestones — including three 200-strikeout seasons and a NL Cy Young Award win in 2021 — that put him higher than Fried on many fans' and experts' lists of top pitchers in MLB. Still, Fried is an extremely strong starter, even surpassing Burnes in a number of stats.

In the last five seasons (2020-24), Burnes has yielded 288 runs (261 earned), while Fried has allowed just 225 (206 earned) and led all pitchers with at least 500 innings of work at 151 ERA+. Fried has also led Burnes in allowed average exit velocity since 2020 — though not by much — by limiting opposing batters to an average of just 86.1 mph compared to Burnes' 86.7 mph.

Despite the two starters being neck and neck in a number of advanced stats over the last five seasons — including barrel rate (Fried at 4.7% and Burnes at 5.4%) and hard-hit rate (Burnes at 32.4% and Fried at 32.7%) — many teams will still likely value Burnes higher in free agency, and projected contract values reflect that. Spotrac projects Burnes will secure an incredible six-year, $180.8 million contract this offseason for an average annual value (AAV) of $30.1 million, while Fried is projected to land a six-year, $136.3 million deal (AAV of $22.7 million).

Should the Blue Jays miss out on Soto this winter — or even if they get him and decide to continue a spending spree — both Burnes and Fried would be fantastic additions to their starting rotation. If the team is able to work with Burnes to raise his strikeout rate back to his 2020-22 numbers, he will be the better pick, but if his days of 200 Ks are over, Fried has arguably been more reliable throughout his career — and is substantially cheaper.

Teoscar Hernández or Anthony Santander would be the Blue Jays next-best outfield options after Juan Soto

As well as targeting either Burnes or Fried, Rosenthal suggested the Blue Jays would go after one of Teoscar Hernández or Anthony Santander to solve their outfield problems before 2025. Both players have merits that make them the obvious next-best choices after Soto — but both also have drawbacks worth considering before the Blue Jays ink a deal.

Coming off a World Series-winning season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Hernández is far and away the best offensive outfielder available in free agency after Soto. In 589 regular-season at-bats his year, Hernández slashed .272/.339/.501 with a career-best 33 home runs and 99 RBI, earning the second All-Star nod of his career. He also won the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby, becoming the first player in Dodgers' history to do so.

Unfortunately, Hernández's defense leaves plenty to be desired. According to Baseball Savant, his disappointing -9 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 2024 ranked him in just the 2nd percentile of all qualified fielders, as did his career-worst -11 Fielding Run Value (FRV).

So what about Santander?

Looking at Santander's offensive stats throughout his career, it's clear his value comes from his power, and that continued to be true in 2024. With the Orioles this season, the 30-year-old posted a .235/.308/.506 line with a career-best 44 home runs and 102 RBI in 595 at-bats. Along with earning his first All-Star selection, and won a Silver Slugger Award for his work this season — but Santander's inconsistency outside of home runs is a concern.

In 2024, Santander posted a career-best OPS (excluding the 2020 season), which is surprising considering it was just .814. The reality is that outside of hitting loud homers, the 30-year-old struggles to find other ways to get on base, as is reflected in his .308 OBP (and, therefore, his OPS). He drew a career-best 58 walks this season, which still only puts him in the 60th percentile across MLB, according to Baseball Savant.

While Santander's fielding stats were better than those Hernández posted in 2024, they were still a long way from great. His - 2 OAA put him in the 28th percentile of all qualified fielders, and his -3 FRV put him in the 25th percentile.

Spotrac predicts Hernández will land a three-year, $71.2 million contract this winter for an AAV of $23.8 million — just more than the $23.5 million he made with the Dodgers this season — but Santander is expected to come cheaper. According to Spotrac, he will likely secure a five-year, $88.6 million deal out of free agency, putting his AAV at $17.7 million. Since both Santander and Hernández rejected qualifying offers from their respective 2024 teams, the Blue Jays would also be subject to draft-pick compensation, should they sign either player.

While Santander is a stronger fielder, Hernández is far fiercer at the plate, and with the Blue Jays targeting offense this winter, the decision between the two outfielders is obvious. It's time for Toronto to put Hernández back into the batting lineup.

Will the Blue Jays need a backup plan for Juan Soto sweepstakes?

On December 2, SNY's Andy Martino reported that there's "widespread belief among bidders that Toronto will come in with the highest offer" for Soto, so if the Blue Jays get their way — and, as we all know, money talks — there'll be no need for a backup plan at all.

Still, the Blue Jays are one of five teams known to have made an initial bid on Soto, and the other four — New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers — are all teams known to fight hard for a top player. Soto is likely to make his decision in the coming days leading up to or during the Winter Meetings, so only time will tell if the Blue Jays have been aggressive enough to land the top free agent of the offseason.