Latest spring training assessment deals brutal blow to Alek Manoah's comeback bid

Alek Manoah made headlines earlier this week when he was very forthcoming about his thoughts on the Toronto Blue Jays World Series run. In an interview with The Athletic Manoah claimed that he played a big role in Toronto getting to the World Series. A bizarre comment considering he didn't throw a single pitch in the big leagues with the Blue Jays in all of 2024.

Now in his first Spring Training with his new team, Manoah is trying to make the LA Angels rotation out of camp. While his peripheral stuff looked fine in his first outing, the underlying metrics show there wasn't a lot of meat on the bone. In fact, his stuff ranked among the worst in Spring Training so far.

Latest spring training assessment deals brutal blow to Alek Manoah's comeback bid

Sure, you don't want to put too much into spring stats, but that is mostly true with the traditional counting numbers. Spring Training history is filled with guys who hit over .400, or smashed double digit home runs, only to get to the regular season and not be able to replicate any of that success. So when it comes to pitchers, it's really about them just getting their arms loose and getting a feel for their grips and arm slots.

The caveat though is that we can now measure things like pitch movement, velocity and location and can grade these metrics for pitchers and their peers. When it comes to Manoah, his stuff isn't measuring up against his peers. In fact, he finds himself at the top (or bottom) of the leaderboard among the worst stuff from pitchers in Spring Training so far.

Through the proStuff+ metric, Manoah's primary and secondary pitches were only measuring a 90 rating. Comparatively, the leaders in the league had ratings of 105 or better, topped by Aroldis Chapman with a 110 rating. It's not a great look for Manoah when his issue's since 2023 have been not being able to control his stuff. His walk rate jumped from 6.5% in 2022 to 14.2% in 2023. It came back down in 2024, but then he hit the IL and underwent season ending surgery.

Manoah signed a one-year $1.95 million deal with the Angles and they don't have a ton of depth in the starting rotation, so unless he completely blows up his numbers in Spring Training, he'll likely still make the Opening Day roster. The group is led by another former Blue Jay in Yusei Kikuchi, followed by José Soriano, Reid Detmers and Grayson Rodriguez, all of whom have varying degrees of big league experience.

Beyond that group they have a handful of 24-years-old and younger who have almost no big league experience. Although a couple of their top ten prospects are pitchers who could come through with a breakout campaign. Still, it may be safe to say that Manoah's shot at the rotation is looking fine and this point, but if his metrics don't get better as Spring Training goes on, there could be an opening for someone else to step up.