Latest Pete Alonso update suggests that the Blue Jays aren’t being reckless after all

The free agent slugger might not get the desperate offer that he may have expected from Toronto.
ByEthan Hyatt|
Championship Series - Los Angeles Dodgers v New York Mets - Game 4
Championship Series - Los Angeles Dodgers v New York Mets - Game 4 | Luke Hales/GettyImages

While free agent first baseman Pete Alonso stays unsigned heading into February, the market of offers surrounding him is getting a bit thinner than he may have hoped. Talks have droned on between the Mets and their incumbent slugger ever since their season ended in the NLCS against the Dodgers, but it seems as though the two sides are having trouble coming together.

While both parties have been long at work trying to come to an agreement, Mets owner Steve Cohen's comments may have given other potential suitors a leg up on his team in the negotiations. In particular, the Toronto Blue Jays have been rumored to be in on Alonso essentially all offseason long, and have more hope now than ever before.

Alonso and his camp recently rejected a contract offer from the Mets that MLB insider Andy Martino says was "the $70M that we talked about for three years." The Blue Jays are coming hot off the signing of outfielder Anthony Santander for five years at over $90 million, so it's evident that they'd be able to make a similar deal with Alonso.

However, Martino also mentioned that "[Alonso] is probably not going to get as good an offer from Toronto as they've already gotten from the Mets and turned down." A contract in size similar to the Mets' offer would rank among the highest in Blue Jays' history, but it seems that Ross Atkins and the Jays are not looking to be as bullish as some might expect.

The Toronto Blue Jays are being reasonable in their Pete Alonso bidding process

It's worth considering that the Mets haven't upped their offer to Alonso following his latest rejection, but this is the same Mets team that gave nearly $800 million to generational superstar Juan Soto just over a month ago. They're offering Alonso what they feel to be a fair deal and he isn't budging. This is just how negotiations work in free agency.

What's really interesting is that Toronto isn't looking to barge in and sweep Alonso away with a larger contract just for the sake of it. The Jays' front office understands that the ballpark around the Mets' offer is where a potential deal has to land.

A surface look at Alonso's stats would show an average of 39 home runs over the last four seasons with a wRC+ above 120 in every big-league season on his record. One stat that doesn't favor Alonso as much as he might like is fWAR. FanGraphs approximates their range of 'Good Players', in terms of fWAR, around the 3-4 range. Taking into account every full MLB season of his career (excluding 2020), Alonso grades out at a 3.38 fWAR, on average.

This is still impressive, but he sits behind notable first basemen like Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman, who, in recent seasons, signed deals averaging $21 million and $27 million per season, respectively. These two players bring bats that are approximately on par with Alonso's, but they are both more complete players on the defensive side of the ball.

It's also realistic to see the Jays up their offer to around the $25 million per year range if a longer deal is able to be reached. With a player like Alonso, a longer period of control brings a lot of value if he can be consistent at the plate.

Toronto would be making a wise move if they choose to offer Alonso a lower deal than the Mets gave him, but it also wouldn't be a bad idea to match the offer or even go above it and see what happens. It means more to see the hesitancy and care that the Jays' front office is embarking on with Alonso, and whatever moves end up happening from here will look all the better because of this caution.

As of right now, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn't locked into a deal beyond this seaso,n and you need a star at first base no matter what. If it's one or the other, clearly Vlad should be the priority, but Alonso would certainly be a good fit in Toronto, too, if the price is right.

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