Kazuma Okamoto’s first Blue Jays season has been defined by extreme highs and lows

After dominating the NPB for eight seasons, Kazuma Okamoto decided to challenge himself at the game's highest level in MLB. Okamoto was posted following the 2025 season and the Toronto Blue Jays were able to sign Okamoto to a four-year, $60 million contract.

In his first season in the majors, Okamoto has experienced his fair share of ups and downs. When Okamoto is on, he can uplift the team, but when he is cold, it can be tough to watch. What has been crazy about his first season is how long the cold streaks can last and how locked in he is when he's hot.

The good: Okamoto is a legitimate hitter

Despite the ups and downs, Okamoto has shown that he's been worth the contract he was given. To this point, Okamoto has hit .236/.310/.466 with 33 home runs, 88 RBI, and one stolen base while posting a 117 wRC+. Okamoto's 33 home runs are a single-season franchise record for most home runs by a rookie since Eric Hinske hit 24 in 2002.

His underlying numbers supports his success. While his 62nd percentile bat speed (73.1 mph) is not elite, Okamoto utilizes his pull side a lot to get his home runs. According to Baseball Savant, his 51.4% pull rate is the eighth highest in the league, while his 28.3% pull-air rate ranks in the top-20 among qualified bats in the Majors.

Not only does Okamoto have an elite ability to pull the ball, Okamoto is able to consistently make hard contact. His 44.2% hard-hit rate is in the 68th percentile, his 90.6 mph average exit velocity ranks in the 77th percentile and his barrel rate is an elite 13.9%, which is in the 91st percentile.

The bad: there are some red flags

There's no doubt that Okamoto can make quality contact, however, the frequency in which he does it leaves a bit to be desired. According to FanGraphs, his 69.8% contact rate is the 11th-lowest rate in the majors, just ahead of Kyle Schwarber (69.7%).

In Japan, Okamoto's career strikeout rate was 17.7%, but in his first season it has nearly doubled to 29.2%, which ranks him in the ninth percentile. It also does not help that his 33% whiff rate is in the seventh percentile.

Okamoto has shown an ability to be disciplined hitter at the plate. His 27.5% chase rate is above average and ranks in the 64th percentile. His 9% walk rate is slightly below average, in the 47th percentile. It has been interesting to see Okamoto go from a guy who could hit for average and power in Japan become a three-true outcomes player.

Defensively, Okamoto has been a below average defender at third base. He has -3 OAA at third base and has a below average arm for the position. His 81.2 mph average throw ranks in the 20th percentile amongst qualified third baseman.

Kazuma Okamoto's season has been defined by his streakiness

The streakiness

As mentioned before, when Okamoto is not right at the plate, he can be a tough watch and those stretches are quite long.

In the first couple months of the season, Okamoto hit a mere .214/.303/.419 with a slightly above average 102 wRC+. While he was hitting for power (12 home runs, .207 ISO) it came at the expense of a lot of swing and miss (32.4% strikeout rate).

When the calendar flipped to June, Okamoto was a different person. He hit .286/.353/.560 with a 153 wRC+. While the surface numbers showed he may be finally adjusting to this level of pitching, the underlying numbers showed it was unsustainable. His 32.4% strikeout rate was in line with the first two months and he had a .365 BABIP compared to .270 the first two months.

In the summer months, Okamoto became tough watch again. Okamoto hit .216/.281/.416 with a below average 93 wRC+. There were some positives to take from this period, however as his 24.6% strikeout rate from July to August was at its lowest.

After another two cold months, Okamoto became hot. In September, Okamoto is currently hitting .318/.388/.727 with an astounding 206 wRC+. It is safe to say that he has finally adjusted to the majors as his strikeout rate is at 26.5% and his 10.2% walk rate is at it's highest since the end of April (10.6%).

Okamoto has started to figure things out at the right time. With how much the Blue Jays offense has struggled this season, Okamoto has become a much needed contributor down the stretch.

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