Jim Bowden's free-agent predictions might be selling the Blue Jays short

The Toronto Blue Jays are expected to be major players in the free-agent market again this winter. They’ve got plenty of money coming off the books, with the contracts of George Springer, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer all coming to an end.

However, one analyst doesn’t see the Blue Jays as a prime landing spot for several of the top names available.

Former GM and current writer for The Athletic Jim Bowden sees the Blue Jays grabbing Seiya Suzuki, but he’s the only player in Bowden’s top 20 that he thinks Toronto would be the best fit for. Bowden also has them being a good fit for Japanese right-hander Hiromi Itoh, who will be posted by the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of NPB and ranks 27th on his list.

Those are the only two players in his top 40 that he sees potentially coming north of the border. That leaves out a few names that seem like natural fits for Toronto.

Tarik Skubal

Bowden’s No. 1 free agent is Tarik Skubal, whose best fits he lists as the New York Mets, LA Dodgers and Chicago White Sox.

Bowden says, “Once healthy and settled with L.A., he was the best left-handed starting pitcher in the game to finish the season. For the season, he had a 2.72 ERA in 158.2 innings, with 186 strikeouts against only 27 walks. Skubal made two postseason starts for the Dodgers, allowing three runs in 11 innings.

He’s a true ace in his prime years and will be the most sought-after free-agent pitcher for those teams that can afford him. He’ll break all contract records for a free-agent pitcher once he signs.”

Bowden sees Skubal signing a contract worth anywhere between $350 million and $500 million, depending on its length.

Freddy Peralta

His No. 2 free agent is Freddy Peralta, whose best fits he lists as the San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox.

He says, “Peralta never got into a groove with the Mets, posting a 4.99 ERA over 22 starts before being traded to the Rays at the deadline. Under the leadership of Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder and one of baseball’s best analytical and scouting departments, Peralta quickly made the necessary changes to get back to his old self.

He had a 3.25 ERA in 10 regular-season starts with the Rays before winning the ALCS MVP, setting himself up for a strong free agency. Despite his struggles in New York, he will enter this winter as the second-best starting pitcher on the open market.'

He predicts Peralta will land a five-year, $140 million deal.

Teruaki Sato

Bowden’s No. 3 free agent is Teruaki Sato, and he sees the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox as the best fits.

Bowden writes, “Sato is set to be the first Japanese position player since Hideki Matsui 23 years ago to win the MVP Award in the Nippon Professional Baseball league and then join an MLB team the next season. Sato won the league’s Triple Crown this year, slashing .306/.383/.609 with 40 doubles, 39 homers and 106 RBIs. He would be a perfect fit for teams like the Phillies, Red Sox, Angels and Yankees, which leads me to believe this will end up being a big-market bidding war.”

He sees Sato getting a five-year deal worth $180 million.

Brandon Lowe

Bowden’s No. 9 free agent is second baseman Brandon Lowe, whose best fits he lists as the San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres.

Bowden says, “There is no doubt that when Lowe is healthy, he is one of the best power-hitting second basemen in the game. This year, he was healthy and played in a career-high 150 games, belting 29 doubles and 35 homers with a 121 OPS+. Not only did he perform offensively, but he was among the best defensive second basemen, ranking in the 96th percentile in defensive run value.

He sees Lowe getting a three-year, $54 million deal.

Why the Blue Jays should still be in the mix for Freddy Peralta, Teruaki Sato and others

This isn’t to say the Blue Jays will land any of these players. It’s just interesting that after several seasons as major players in the pursuit of big-name free agents like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker, they aren’t seen as a best fit for any of these top guys.

Toronto needs to upgrade its pitching, so you’d think the front office would be having conversations with Skubal and Peralta. The Blue Jays have also built a big presence in the Asian market over the last few seasons, signing Kazuma Okamoto last offseason and bringing over Cody Ponce from the KBO, not to mention international free-agent signings Seojun Moon and Si-Woo Kwon. That would suggest they’ll at least explore the possibility of bringing over Sato.

Then there’s the major need for more pop from the middle of the infield. Enter Lowe and his 35 home runs. His combination of power and defensive run value make him the exact prototype of a player the Blue Jays need up the middle on the field and in the middle of the lineup.

It’s entirely possible the Blue Jays don’t engage with any of these players, but knowing how GM Ross Atkins goes about his business, it would be a strange turn for him not to at least look at bringing some of these names in. Whether he lands them is a completely different story, but saying the Blue Jays aren’t the best fit for at least a couple of these players might be an oversight.

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