Jeff Hoffman's Sunday Blue Jays win made the wrong kind of MLB history

Toronto Blue Jays fans have been blessed with some quality closers over the years - and they've also had to endure some duds. For every Tom Henke, B.J. Ryan and Duane Ward, there's a Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg or Miguel Batista.

Where current closer Jeff Hoffman stands among that divide has been up for debate for most of the season, and his most recent outing certainly doesn't help his case to belong among the franchise elites. The 32-year-old blew his fifth save of the season against the Dodgers on Sunday - walking in the tying run in the 8th inning, before escaping the jam. He'd return for the 9th inning, and walk three more before being lifted for Mason Fluharty - actually earning the win, thanks to the clutch outing by the rookie southpaw.

While the outing ironically dropped Hoffman's ERA to 4.50 (since the run he walked in belonged to Yariel Rodriguez), it was historically bad. The five walks issued tied a franchise record for the most walks issued when entering in a save situation - and he's also the first pitcher since the turn of the 20th century to give up at least five walks in less than an inning of work, while still earning the win.

That's quite bad, to be sure. But should it lose Hoffman the closer's job down the stretch?

Long Layoff

Pitchers are creatures of routine - especially relievers. And while teams certainly do all that they can to ensure that their relief corps get sufficient rest to endure the wear and tear of a long season, too much of it can cause cobwebs to form - and it would appear that that's what happened to Hoffman on Sunday. It was his first appearance in a full week, and his first save opportunity in eight days.

In two previous July outings following layoffs of five days or more, Hoffman gave up three earned runs on three hits against the A's, and a run on two hits against the Orioles. In a third, against the Giants, he struck out the side in a perfect inning. Notably, the strong outing was at home, while the two bad ones, like Sunday's, were on the road. It would appear that the heat, along with the time off, may be affecting Hoffman's ability to get a feel for his stuff.

Overblown Control Problems

Hoffman's walk-fest on Sunday drew attention to his ability to find the strike zone - and perhaps unfairly so. After issuing those five free passes, Hoffman has now walked 16 batters in 48 innings this season - that's one for every three appearances - and almost a third of them came in that single outing. He only walked a single batter through all of July, only three in June, and just one in April. Six of them came in May, which has been, by far, his worst month all season.

The only relievers on the team with a BB/9 rate lower than Hoffman's 3.0 (among the current staff) are Braydon Fisher (2.5) and Tommy Nance (1.5), while other leverage arms like Seranthony Dominguez (5.4), Brendon Little (5.6), Yimi Garcia (5.1) and Yariel Rodriguez (3.7) have walked more batters on a per-game basis. Hoffman's K/9 of 12.0 ranks higher than every current reliever on the team except Little.

Inflated Struggles

Hoffman's 4.50 ERA is not going to scare anyone on paper - it's the highest it's been since his 2021 season with the Reds when he was predominantly a starter - along with runs (25) and homers (10) allowed. And while pitchers don't get a mulligan for an entire month, his disastrous May has blown up those numbers. That's when he allowed 14 of 38 hits, 15 of 24 earned runs, and 5 of the 10 homers he's coughed up.

Looking even closer, of the 24 earned runs he's allowed, 18 of them came in a total of six bad outings, and only four of those were save situations. If you subtract those four bad outings, his ERA in save situations drops from 5.14 to just under 1.50 - and all of those bad outings came in May.

Yes, arbitrary end points make everyone look better if the parameters are appropriately set, but this is a pitcher who has looked the part against key opponents like the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers and Mariners, sits 16th among MLB relievers with 12 K/9, and his 26 saves rank 6th in the Majors.

If the control becomes a trend in the coming days, the Jays may be wise to consider another option in the 9th inning role - but it should take more than one horrible Hoffman outing in three months for that to happen.