How will the starting rotation be affected by Max Scherzer's return this week?

After signing a one-year $15 million contract this past offseason, Max Scherzer has been a disappointment thus far due to a thumb injury. The Blue Jays hoped Scherzer would return to his ace form after two of his worst seasons, although they were a respectful 3.77 and 3.95 ERAs. From 2013 to 2022, he threw under a 3.00 ERA in eight out of ten seasons.

He's thrown only three innings this season but looked good in his two rehab starts. The veteran threw 8 2/3 innings for Triple-A Buffalo, posting a 2.08 ERA and a 12:3 strikeout:walk ratio. Scherzer is scheduled to start against the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday.

How will Max Scherzer's return affect the starting rotation?

For most of the season, the Blue Jays have used a four-man rotation, with a bullpen game taking the fifth game, especially since Bowden Francis's injury. This strategy will likely continue until Francis returns. Eric Lauer and Spencer Turnbull have alternated as the relievers who recently filled the opener role which will likely continue until Francis returns.

Lauer has been solid this season since returning from spending 2024 in the Korean Baseball Organization. In 10 games (four starts), the righty has posted a 3-1 record, 2.29 ERA, and a 36:13 strikeout:walk ratio. Turnbull has struggled in his three games (one start) with a 7.11 ERA, and a four:four strikeout:walk ratio.

Neither pitcher has an option left, and if put on waivers, they'd likely be picked up by a team. So when Francis returns, the Blue Jays' front office will have a decision to make. Francis has an option left, so he could be sent down to tweak his issues. Francis getting sent down will likely depend on when Alex Manoah returns.

What should the Blue Jays do for their pitching staff at the trade deadline?

Starting pitching will need to be a priority at the trade deadline. There will be plenty of options for the Blue Jays. If the Arizona Diamondbacks fall further back in the NL West, they could be motivated to trade Zac Gallen or Merril Kelly, whose contracts end after the season. Other possible targets are Zach Eflin (Orioles), Pablo Lopez (Twins), Tyler Anderson (Angels), Edward Cabrera (Marlins), and Andrew Heaney (Pirates).

How many pitchers the team needs to acquire will be determined by how Scherzer looks when he returns, as well as the injury status of both Manoah and Francis. Manoah is recovering from Tommy John surgery but is throwing bullpen sessions and could return in August. Francis is a little more uncertain as he's still shut down with no timetable.

If Scherzer can return to form, the Blue Jays will have one of the best-starting rotations in the American League and should be considered a postseason contender.