How trading for a Hall of Fame pitcher would have re-written Blue Jays history

1995

Johnson won his first Cy Young Award, leading the league with 294 strikeouts, a 193 ERA+, a 2.08 FIP and 1.045 WHIP. His 12.3 K/9 were the highest of his career to that point and so was his 4.52 K/BB rate. 

The Blue Jays pitching staff had a couple of league leaders too. Hentgen led the league with 236 hits allowed, and 114 earned runs. Al Leiter was the only pitcher to have a good season with the Blue Jays, but he walked more hitters than anybody else in the league with 108, and threw 14 wild pitches, also a league high in ‘95. 

The biggest detriment to not having Johnson in 1995, is that the Blue Jays signed David Cone going into the season and he was really good in Toronto. He pitched to a 4.4 bWAR with a 3.38 ERA and was a solid top three rotation option on any team, other than the Blue Jays. The Yankees thought this to, and decided to trade for him at the deadline for  Mike Gordon, Jason Jarvis and Marty Janzen, none of whom had any major impact on the Blue Jays during their tenure. 

With a Johnson, Cone and Leiter combination, maybe Toronto plays better than their 56-88 record.   

1996

Another year where the Blue Jays could have used some help in the rotation. While Hentgen won his one and only Cy Young Award as the ace of the Blue Jays staff, only he and Juan Guzman pitched effectively for the Blue Jays. Hentgen led the league with an 8.6 bWAR and 10 complete games.

He also pitched 265.2 innings, the most in the league and his 0.7 HR/9 rate was better than anyone elses. There’s an argument to be made for Guzman to have gotten some Cy Young recognition as well. He had a 6.7 bWAR and led the league with a 2.93 ERA and 171 ERA+ a 1.124 WHIP, a 7.6 H/9 rate and a 3.11 K/BB ratio. 

What hurts this hindsight review is the fact that Johsnson underwent season ending surgery in May of 1996, so the Blue Jays would not have been able to build upon their 74-88 record regardless.