How trading for a Hall of Fame pitcher would have re-written Blue Jays history

Randy Johnson was almost a Toronto Blue Jay. It is a story that has floated around for almost 30 years, but it’s sparked interest once again this week. Hall of Fame General Manager Pat Gilick joined John Morosi on his "The Road to Cooperstown" podcast and the architect of the Blue Jays World Series championships rehashed the story. 

The coles notes version is this: Gillick had a trade in place with Seattle Mariners General Manager Woody Woodward to land Johnson. But he also had something lined up with the
Oakland Athletics involving a similar trade package centered around pitching prospect Steve Karsay. When Athletics GM Sandy Alderson told Gillick he would take the deal and send him the greatest leadoff hitter of all-time in Rickey Henderson, Gillick tried to reach Woodward but couldn't get a hold of him. Gillick told Anderson, ‘you’ve got a deal’ and the rest is history.

So either way the Blue Jays wound up with a future Hall of Famer and adding Henderson to the top of an already potent lineup just deepened the Blue Jays batting order, en route to the 1993 World Series title. 

But what if Gillick was able to complete the deal with Woodward? How different would Blue Jays history be?

Johnson remained with the Seattle Mariners until they traded him in 1998 to Houston, with one year left on his contract. It’s not an apples to apples comparison but lets see if plugging Johnson into Toronto’s rotation until 1998 would have yielded any history changing results. 

1993

If the Blue Jays acquired Johnson at the deadline instead of Henderson they likely still would have been AL East division champions. They went 35-22 from the start of August to the end of the season. Todd Stottlemyre pitched to a 5.11 ERA in 74 innings pitched in 12 games, while Jack Morris had a 4.69 ERA in 48 innings pitched in eight games. 

Johnson pitched to a 2.52 ERA in 13 games with 121 strikeouts in 96.1 innings pitched. He gave up just seven home runs, facing 387 batters. It’s safe to say that Johnson would have been an improvement in the rotation and the Blue Jays still would be in a great position to capture their second straight World Series title. 

1994

During the strike shortened 1994 season, Johnson went 13-6 with a 3.19 ERA, throwing 172.0 innings and striking out 204 batters. He had a bWAR of 5.5 and an ERA+ of 152. 

Those were better stats than anyone in the Blue Jays rotation that season. Toronto had just one pitcher who had an ERA under 4.00 and that was Pat Hentgen who pitched to a 3.40 ERA with 147 strikeouts in 174.2 innings and accumulated a bWAR of 5.4. 

This season ended up being a wash with the cancellation of the World Series but once again, we’re in a situation where Johnson would likely have helped the Blue Jays finish better than 55-60.