Has this player pitched himself out of a postseason spot?

The Blue Jays' rotation has been inconsistent this season, with more struggles in the second half. Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage may have secured postseason rotation spots, while Max Scherzer may have pitched himself out. Gausman has excelled recently, with eight quality starts in 11 outings, a 2.19 ERA, and a 73:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio, proving he will be the postseason ace.

Shane Bieber returned strongly from 2024 Tommy John surgery. In four of six starts, he's thrown at least 5 1/3 innings, allowing two or fewer earned runs, with a 34:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, likely securing the No.2 postseason spot. Top prospect Trey Yesavage impressed in his MLB debut, pitching five innings with one earned run and a 9:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Has this player pitched himself out of a postseason spot?

The rookie struggled in his second outing, throwing four innings against the Royals, but allowed four earned runs and had a 2:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He still is a strong possibility to be the No. 3 starter, but because he wasn't on the 40-man roster by September 1, he will need a commissioner's exemption to play in the postseason, making three likely postseason starters.

Max Scherzer hadn’t thrown under a 4.50 ERA in any month in the first half of the season, but he started strong in August, throwing four excellent games, and started to look like a lock for a postseason starting rotation spot. He pitched at least six innings, allowed two or fewer earned runs, and posted a 17:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio over this span, with three of the four games coming against playoff-contending teams (Royals, Dodgers, and the Cubs). Since then, he has been disatrious.

Scherzer, a former Cy Young winner, has a 9.45 ERA over his last five starts, including allowing seven earned runs in just 2/3 of an inning in his previous start against the Royals. He's allowed four or more earned runs in four of these games and seven home runs in that span, totaling 18 homers allowed this season.

There's only one hope for Scherzer to make a postseason start: the lack of depth. José Berríos has moved to the bullpen, and surprising news on Saturday was that Chris Bassitt, who has been phenomenal the last two months, is heading to the 15-day injured list with lower back inflammation. The righty had an ERA of 3.67 and 2.66 in August and September, respectively, which would have likely earned him the No. 3 postseason spot, pushing Yesavage to fourth. The Blue Jays will need to see how Bassitt recovers to determine his postseason availability.

With these developments, Gausman, Scherzer, and Bieber are set to pitch against the Red Sox. Yesavage will get another shot at proving he can be an asset in the postseason by starting the final series of the regular season, against the Rays on Friday. Berríos should remain in the bullpen with Eric Lauer, who has mostly started games this season due to injuries, but has returned to the bullpen since the end of August.

The next week may affect postseason rotation plans. The Blue Jays have a two-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East and the best AL record. Locking up the division and top seed early could give Bassitt time to recover for the fourth postseason spot. If Bassitt can't return, Scherzer will likely start the fourth game, but will be on a short leash, depending on how the first three games of the ALDS series unfold.