Freddy Peralta’s World Series stumble shouldn’t decide Blue Jays' pursuit of star pitcher

The Toronto Blue Jays don’t need to completely rebuild their rotation this winter, but after last season’s injuries, adding one more frontline arm would go a long way. With four spots largely accounted for (Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, José Soriano and Cody Ponce), the question is how much they’re willing to spend on the fifth – and whether that money is better spent on the lineup.

The Blue Jays have just over $100 million coming off the books this offseason, giving them plenty of flexibility if they want to add a pitcher like Freddy Peralta at the projected average annual value of $28 million per season (according to Jim Bowden's projected five-year, $140 million deal).

That could hinder their ability to make a significant addition to the lineup, but it shouldn’t completely take them out of the running for anyone other than perhaps Tarik Skubal. And if they go after Peralta, adding Skubal would seem completely redundant anyway.

Peralta might be the most intriguing arm on the market, partly because the last impression wasn’t his best. He lasted 4.2 innings, giving up five runs on seven hits and three walks with four strikeouts in the Rays' 10-1 Game 3 loss to the Brewers.

So did his World Series performance change the Blue Jays’ minds about a Peralta pursuit? And more importantly, should it?

Blue Jays have a lot to weigh in potential Freddy Peralta pursuit

Peralta’s 2026 campaign started as a nightmare in New York. After the Brewers traded him to the Mets in January with a year left on his contract, he went 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 22 starts. He struggled to implement the mechanical changes the Mets coaching staff asked of him.

The Rays took a gamble at the trade deadline, and under pitching coach Kyle Snyder, he completely bounced back. He went 5-2 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in Tampa Bay, including a 0.81 ERA over his final seven regular-season starts, and was named AL Pitcher of the Month for September.

He carried that momentum into October, posting a 2.95 ERA over 21.1 innings in the playoffs and even took home the ALCS MVP honours. Then came the World Series. and the lopsided Game 3 loss to the eventual champion Milwaukee Brewers.

But if that start cost Peralta anything, it doesn’t show in the early projections. Bowden has Peralta second on his top 40 free agents list, behind only Tarik Skubal. Considering the Blue Jays signed a 30-year-old Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal just last winter, that contract prediction for Peralta, who turns 31 in June, seems like a very fair and reasonable number for Toronto.

He’s been incredibly durable, making 171 starts over the last six seasons, posting a 64-45 record with a 10.43 K/9 rate, 3.51 ERA and 3.77 FIP. He’s been worth 16.7 fWAR, and his 1,042 strikeouts rank seventh among all qualified starters over that time frame.

Slotting Peralta into the Blue Jays' projected rotation could give them one of the top five-man units in the game.

But they also have to weigh a few things. Was Peralta’s first half just a blip caused by a Mets pitching staff that has not had a ton of success stories in the last few years? Do they believe so much in the second half numbers that Peralta is worth $28 million per year?

Are there already other options in house (Bowden Francis, Ricky Tiedemann, Jake Bloss, Spencer Miles, and Spencer Arrighetti for instance) that they could plug into the five spot for a lot less money? They could then use those resources towards major lineup upgrade.

Either way, one World Series start shouldn’t be what decides it. A rough night against the team that knows him best doesn’t erase a dominant second half or six years of durability.

What should decide it is whether the Blue Jays trust the Tampa Bay version of Peralta enough to commit $140 million to him, or something in that neighbourhood. If they believe the changes are real, he’s the type of arm who could turn a good rotation into one of the best in baseball.

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