FanGraphs isn't buying Blue Jays' pursuit of an AL East division repeat

Behind a quartet of marquee signings that should help the Toronto Blue Jays keep pace with the rest of Major League Baseball's elite, one would think that the reigning American League pennant winners would be heavily favored to repeat as division champions.

Alas, FanGraphs' official MLB playoff odds for the 2026 season have been released. Suffice it to say, the picture is not a pretty one for the Jays.

Blue Jays receive massive disrespect from FanGraphs' playoff odds

The first thing to note is that the Blue Jays are projected to finish with a meager 85-77 record, which is actually the fourth-best mark in the Junior Circuit (the odds seem to heavily favor National League teams). No AL team is projected to clear more than 88 wins (the Seattle Mariners hold that top spot), with the Guardians and Yankees estimated to win their divisions with about 86-87 wins apiece.

Now, these are obviously very conservative rankings. Even in a year of unusual parity in 2025, the Blue Jays and Yankees led the way with 94 wins each, and the Houston Astros missed out on the playoffs despite an 87-75 record. Surely someone will beat FanGraph's estimates and eclipse 90 wins with ease.

While you'd think that would be the Blue Jays, the odds don't seem to be so sure. Their odds to make the playoffs sit at a respectable 61.5%, but their chance to claim a second consecutive AL East crown sits below 25%. Their World Series odds, meanwhile, currently lay below 5%.

It's exceedingly difficult to believe that the Yankees — who have done nothing but re-sign their own players and trade for Ryan Weathers this offseason — are the ones with the best odds to win the division (31.6%), which feels like a prediction accidentally spit out by code a couple of years old. The Bronx Bombers are running it back with the same team that lost to the Blue Jays in the ALDS last year, only this time they're a year older.

For what it's worth, besides the Yankees, only the Tigers and Mariners have better World Series odds among American League teams. However, as aforementioned, most of the premium contenders reside in the NL (according to FanGraphs, at least), with the Braves (10.5%), Mets (7.6%), and Dodgers (27.4%!!!) all eclipsing even the best team in Junior Circuit. And yes, you read that right: The Dodgers have better odds to win the World Series than the Blue Jays do to win the division.

Looks like it'll be another long year of proving all the doubters wrong in Toronto.