FanGraphs gives the Blue Jays insultingly low World Series odds

The Toronto Blue Jays had an exceptional 2025 season in which they went from worst to first to finish atop the American League East standings to capture their first division title in over a decade. Not only that, the Blue Jays would go on a memorable postseason run where they fell just one game short of a World Series title. Added to an eventful offseason in which Toronto made several key additions, one would expect them to be one of the odds-on favourite to win it all in 2026.

However, FanGraphs doesn’t think too highly of the Blue Jays’ growth and accomplishments from last year, along with the moves that they have cleverly made this winter. In fact, FanGraphs shockingly has the Blue Jays at just an insultingly low 4.6% for their World Series odds heading into 2026. 

The Blue Jays only have the eighth best odds to win the World Series according to FanGraphs

The fact that the reigning World Series champions Los Angeles Dodgers lead the way at 27.3% makes total sense, given that they have even improved their roster significantly this offseason with the additions of Blue Jays free agent targets Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz. But to find Toronto slotted behind six teams that included the Seattle Mariners (8.9%), New York Mets (7.7%), Atlanta Braves (7.4%), New York Yankees (6.2%), Detroit Tigers (6.0%) and Philadelphia Phillies (5.6%) is a total travesty.

First of all, five of those six teams didn’t even make it past the divisional series last season, with the Mets and Braves failing to get into the 2025 MLB Playoffs altogether. Moreover, both the Yankees and Mariners fell at the hands of the Blue Jays during Toronto’s brilliant surge to the finals. So just on last year’s performance and results alone should put the Blue Jays as World Series favourites ahead of the bulk of them.

Now taking into consideration the work that had been done by the various teams this offseason, the Mets had added former Blue Jays star shortstop Bo Bichette, along with Devin Williams, Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr. But don’t forget they also lost significant pieces in slugger Pete Alonso, star outfielder Brandon Nimmo and their ace closer Diaz in the process. As for the Braves, closer Robert Suárez was their only most prominent addition. So in doing so, it should make both team potential playoff contenders once again, but to be World Series favourites over the Blue Jays is another story.

As for the Yankees and Mariners, they are practically running it back with a similar roster as last season, with Seattle making just one prominent acquisition in utilityman Brendan Donovan. The same can be said for the Phillies, with Brad Keller and Adolis Garcia being their main recruitments this offseason. So how does that suddenly put them with better odds over the Blue Jays, who have added significant pieces in Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogers and Jesús Sánchez all this offseason?

Of all of the the aforementioned teams, there could be a legitimate argument for the Detroit Tigers though. Not only do they have perhaps the best pitcher in all of baseball in Tarik Skubal, but they also had major key adds this offseason with top pitching free agent Framber Valdez, former Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and veteran elite closer Kenley Jansen. As a result, their pitching staff could be unstoppable heading into the 2026 season and could surprisingly present the biggest challenge to the Blue Jays in the American League this season.

Nevertheless, not having the Blue Jays among the top five odds to win the World Series after being finalists last year while improving their roster this offseason makes no sense at all. Hopefully Toronto can show everyone once again by defying the odds and get it done this time around.