Early season victories loom large for Blue Jays in September

They say a win in April is just as good as a win in September, but unless you're in the playoff hunt by the time September rolls around, that sentence carries very little weight. For the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays though, some of their early season victories could be the difference between getting a first-round bye, or having to fight through the Wild Card series for the third time in four seasons.

A bye straight to the ALDS could be a welcomed sight for the Blue Jays which would mean two things at this point. One - they made it to the playoffs as AL East division champions and didn't let their division lead slip away. Two - they don't have the pressure having to win a very short series, something they haven't managed to do in the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette era. Yes, the ALDS is only a best of five, but you do get a little more runway if you drop a game, or even two.

The Blue Jays have positioned themselves well to get that first round bye as they enter Thursdays games as the top team in the American League with an 81-59 record. They have achieved that not just through their own record, but by taking away victories from key teams throughout the year. If they finish in a tie with the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Mariners or the Tigers, the Blue Jays would have the upper hand, thanks to having a better head-to-head record against them in the regular season.

Early season victories loom large for Blue Jays in September

In order for the Blue Jays to get a first-round bye they need to finish with first or second in the American League and their biggest competition for one of those two playoff spots right now is with the Detroit Tigers. For the last few weeks, the Tigers and the Blue Jays have been trading off the pole position at the top of the league. Toronto just squeaked by the Tigers with a 4-3 record overall against them this season, and three of those wins were arguably some of the most impressive road victories for Toronto this year.

Detroit hosted Toronto for a four game set July 24-27 and the Blue Jays took the first three games by outscoring Detroit 23-7, including a game started by Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal. Although Skubal held Toronto to no runs over six innings - Kevin Gausman matched him with a 10 strikeout performance in six innings for Toronto. They didn't complete the sweep, but those three wins, combined with their one win in a three game set at Rogers Centre in May, gave the Blue Jays the edge in this head-to-head matchup.

Next on the list are Toronto's division rivals in the Yankees and the Red Sox who are still hoping to steal away the division led from Toronto. Doing that would guarantee that the Blue Jays have to play in the Wild Card round. However, Toronto is 7-3 against both those teams this season, with only three games left against each of them meaning if they end the season with identical records, Toronto will at worst have a 7-6 win-loss edge over them.

The Blue Jays have had some memorable games against both these teams this year. They swept the Yankees at home over the Canada Day weekend to take over the division lead, including two-two homer games from George Springer. They had a huge late game win in late April, when Alejandro Kirk hit a two-run go-ahead double in the top of the ninth, an at-bat that got Kirk rolling this season. And in late July, Gausman outdueled Carlos Rodon with seven innings pitched and eight strikeouts in a 4-1 Blue Jays win.

In their battles against the Red Sox the Blue Jays had one of their better series of April at Fenway Park from April 7-10 in which they won the first three games and lost the last one in extra innings. They took two of three from the Red Sox at Rogers Centre at the end of April, when Jeff Hoffman recorded six outs in the ninth and tenth innings, before Kirk hit a walk-off single in the bottom of the tenth for a 7-6 win, in a game in which the Blue Jays were down 6-0. Their last trip to Fenway had a bit of everything. Toronto took the opener 9-0, lost the second game 15-1, then took the rubber match 5-3.

The Mariners are still in the chase, but they are falling back quickly. Still, if they get hot and tie Toronto, the Blue Jays went 4-2 against the Mariners, which included a three game sweep at T-Mobile Park from May 9-11 where the Blue Jays bats broke out in the finale with a 9-1 win.

The last team currently in the chase for a first-round bye are the Houston Astros and they have a 3-0 regular season lead on Toronto, after sweeping the Blue Jays in Houston from April 21-23. However, the Blue Jays will host the Astros for three games next week. If the Blue Jays sweep the Astros, and even the season series at three games apiece, the next tiebreaker is resolved via intradivision record. The Blue Jays are currently 19-17 against their AL East division opponents while the Astros are 15-13 against their AL West division foes.