Dylan Cease is building Blue Jays' Cy Young case with unique dominance

The American League Cy Young will see a new winner this year, and Dylan Cease is making a very impressive case early this season.

The Toronto Blue Jays inked the flamethrower to a seven-year deal in the off-season in order to gain front end talent for the starting rotation. The deal came with lofty expectations, however Cease has exceeded even some of the more optimistic expectations bestowed upon him.

Cease entered the season with the most strikeouts in all of baseball since 2020. He was known to be a dominant strikeout pitcher, so his AL best 12.90 K/9 and 75 strikeouts should be a surprise to nobody. In addition to being a strikeout machine, he has optimized his pitching profile to be the best version of himself.

Cease's Problems

Even the best pitchers have flaws in their game, and Cease has been no different. Over his career he has dealt with issues of walking batters and allowing hard contact when batters connect.

Cease had previously never finished a season with a walk rate ranking better than the 41st percentile. Even in 2022, when he finished runner-up in AL Cy Young voting, he posted a 16th percentile walk rate.

Another issue that has plagued Cease at times has been his tendency to allow some unideal contact at times. Even in his best years, batters typically managed to get 60 per cent or more batted balls in the air. On its own, it can prove insignificant, however when also dealing with a walk issue, it can prove to be an issue. See his 2025 season for his example.

While Cease still pitched great in 2025, his 20th percentile walk rate and 46th percentile barrel rate means two things. He gave batters too many free passes, and when batters did connect against him, it was more likely they were doing damage. Batters were also pulling balls in the air against Cease, further exemplifying the problem he has had with allowing damage.

Throughout his career he has essentially been a two pitch pitcher. Since 2022, his four-seam fastball and slider have combined to make up over 80 per cent of pitches he throws. Even with the dominant stuff that Cease has in his arsenal, when two pitches make up over 80 per cent of what you throw, it makes a batters life easier because a batter has an easier time sitting on a pitch.

Cease's Adjustments

In 2026, an adjustment to Cease’s arsenal has allowed him to be less predictable, which has led to even more strikeouts, more ideal contact in his favour, and going deeper into games.

One of the knocks against Cease when he signed his contract was his inefficiency on the mound. He only pitched seven innings twice in 2025, and pitched six or more innings 11 times total. So far in 2026, he has managed to throw seven innings in three consecutive outings, and completed six innings on four occasions total.

He is also pitching more innings per start, his average in 2025 was fewer than 5.1 innings per start, whereas in 2026 it is north of 5.2 innings per start.

The contact that Cease allows is also far more in his favour in 2026. There’s still more pulled fly balls than what is ideal, however he is allowing less of those than he ever has in his career, 

The single biggest development in his results this year is his new-found ability to induce ground balls. Previously, he had never posted a ground ball rate higher than the 39th percentile. In 2026, he is posting a career-best 47.5 per cent groundball rate, ranking in the 67th percentile and blowing his previous career high out of the water.

Cease is also preventing barrels and homers at the best rate of his career. He has allowed just one homer through nine starts in 2026, giving him 0.17 HR/9 on the year, and his 83rd percentile barrel rate (4.3 per cent) is the best of his career.

It all comes back to the changes to his arsenal. Technically speaking, his changeup, sinker and sweeper are far from new, as data shows that he has thrown these pitches for multiple years, however they saw very minimal usage previously. Since 2022, his changeup never exceeded more than 3.0 per cent usage, his sinker never exceeding 3.9, and his sweeper never exceeding 4.1. These pitches have significant increases in usage so far in 2026. His changeup has jumped to 11.4 per cent, his sinker 9.3 per cent, and his sweeper 6.1 per cent. 

The ability to sit fastball or slider simply is not there for a batter anymore. The changeup, sweeper and sinker all have to be respected, and selling out simply will not end well. This has also made his fastball and slider even more effective than they were before. Batters are not hitting those pitches as well as they did last year, and his most predominant pitches are also seeing an increase in whiffs.

This has led to Cease posting the best strikeout numbers of his career so far. He is posting career-best marks in K/9 (12.90), K-BB% (24.9) and FIP (1.86). He is also currently sitting at an ERA of 2.41, which currently only ranks behind his AL Cy Young runner-up season in 2022.

Coming into the season, he got some mention as a potential dark horse Cy Young candidate, however early in the season is near the front of the pack. Cease currently holds the best K/9 and xFIP in the American League, is second in HR/9, FIP and fWAR, ranks third in K-BB% and is fifth in ERA.

As it stands, the AL Cy Young race is currently a two horse race between Cease and Cam Schlittler of the New York Yankees. Schlittler has been having a spectacular season. The Yankees flamethrower currently leads all AL pitchers in ERA, FIP and fWAR. If the season ended today, Schlittler probably ends up going home with the honours but Cease would have very serious consideration.

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