When the Blue Jays signed veteran reliever Chad Green back in 2023, they anticipated a late-inning shutdown man for the foreseeable future. However, after his recent woes, it looks like his run may be coming to an end, as Yimi Garcia will be activated off the injured list in the upcoming week. Let's break down the disaster by the numbers. Through 35 appearances this season, Green is currently sporting a 4.24 ERA, while giving up a league-leading 10 home runs over that span, and it's not even July. With that being said, it does not look like the 2024 AL Comeback Player of the Year Finalist will return to form anytime soon.
Garcia, arguably Toronto's most dominant reliever thus far, wasset to make another appearance in Triple-A Buffalo on Sunday, meaning he could return to the staff early this week. With a 3.15 ERA and a WHIP just hovering above one through 21 games, Garcia will immediately re-enter the late-inning mix. He even has a legitimate shot at the closing role, as Jeff Hoffman hasn't been so consistent.
The once-thin Jays' bullpen is now ranked 12th in ERA (3.71), but Green is holding it back. It's also clear to fans that the front office is not afraid to make the difficult (but correct) decision regarding DFA's, as they parted ways with Erik Swanson this month.
Unfortunately for Green, the underlying metrics do not help his case. The biggest eye-opener is his 16.5 percent barrel rate, which ranks in the first percentile in all of the major leagues, according to Baseball Savant. Simply put, he's getting hit and he's getting hit hard. Green's fifth percentile average exit velocity is at 91.8mph, while his hard-hit percentage sits at 49.5 percent, which places him in the fourth percentile. It's clear that Green has not been able to find his stuff, which brings the bullpen down to a B-grade .
Another reliever that is on the cusp of losing his job is the 27-year-old, Paxton Shultz, so Green may be able to breathe a sigh of relief. Shultz could be sent down to Triple-A Buffalo, considering he still has available options. Although it may be "easier" to send down Shultz, he provides the Jays with another opener option in case Scherzer goes back down again, for example. Paxton's ability to start if needed may be his saving grace. Nonetheless, the 35-year-old veteran reliever's time in Toronto is most likely coming to an abrupt end, sooner rather than later.
As it stands, the Blue Jays are sitting at seven games above .500 (47-38), but this team simply cannot afford to roster a reliever whose recent outings have turned into unpredictability every time. With a front office that's shown its willingness to make significant changes on the fly, it seems as though Chad Green is the odd man out.