Could a front office shakeup lead to John Schneider not returning as Blue Jays manager?

The Blue Jays’ hot start this year has taken a bit of pressure off John Schneider.

While Schneider is in his fourth season as the Blue Jays’ manager, it hasn’t been an easy ride thanks to some missteps and struggles on the field. 

The Blue Jays made it to the postseason in 2022 (the year that Schneider took over as interim manager halfway through the season) and 2023 (his first full year) before being at the helm for a rough season last year.

But could the thing that decides his future with the franchise end up being something that happens off the field? 

Could a front office shakeup lead to John Schneider not returning as Blue Jays manager? 

In a new story for The Athletic (subscription required), MLB insider Ken Rosenthal highlighted nine managers “whose job status could be in question” at the end of the season, which Schneider making an appearance on the list.

And, according to Rosenthal, Schneider's status is in question because of the uncertainty surrounding the Blue Jays front office. President Mark Shapiro’s contract expires after this season and general manager Ross Atkins’ expires after 2026, so there’s not much certainty that they could be back. 

While changing presidents would be easy after this season since the team could just elect to not renew Shapiro’s contract, Rosenthal writes that Atkins could also be let go this season if the team doesn’t reach the postseason. 

All of those things factor into Schneider's future with the Blue Jays.

“The Jays hold an option on Schneider for 2026. Shapiro and Atkins previously extended both John Gibbons and Charlie Montoyo at the outsets of their respective contract years. If they have done the same with Schneider, they haven’t announced it publicly,” Rosenthal writes. 

Most of the time, neither teams nor managers want to have their manager on an expiring contract. Not only does it give the perception of the manager being a lame-duck, but it also prevents both parties from moving forward with the next steps. 

Teams want to get a head start on searching for new managers, and a manager wants to get a head start on figuring out where he’s going next. 

The Jays have publicly stood behind Schneider for his entire managerial career even when seemingly all of Canada was calling for his head after he pulled José Berríos in the fourth inning of a postseason game against the Twins.

Players seem to enjoy playing for him, and the team has played hard for him this year despite having to spend the first week and a half of the season dealing with a potential Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension hanging over the team’s head. 

But that storyline disappeared after the team signed Guerrero to a 14-year, $500 million contract, and the team responded by rattling off a winning week against two divisional opponents. 

For what it’s worth, Shapiro spoke fondly about Schneider in the spring by telling MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson that Schneider has a chance to be “great, great major-league manager.” That doesn’t sound like a guy who’s interested in hiring a new manager. 

But, as Rosenthal pointed out, that might not end up being his decision to make.