Costly late-inning mistake brings back brutal Marcus Semien memory for Blue Jays

Some losses just have that sense of déjà vu, and not for a good reason.

For the Toronto Blue Jays, Monday night’s 6-5 loss to the Detroit Tigers was one of those games. It had the late-inning gut punch, the mounting missed opportunities and the sense that one mistake could end up taking on extra meaning in a tight playoff race this tight.

The defining moment came in the top of the ninth, when Louis Varland dropped a throw from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. while covering first base. That allowed the go-ahead run to score and was just the latest in a series of plays throughout the night that allowed the Tigers to get back into the game.

It was only Varland’s second blown save of the season, and it came from a pitcher who has otherwise been one of Toronto’s biggest success stories. Even after the loss, he still owns a 1.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 33 saves in 35 chances. That shows just how rare a sight it's been to see Varland not managed to come through - though he was tasked with getting five outs against the Tigers, coming into the game in the top of the eighth.

Varland has spent the season becoming one of the most reliable closers in baseball, but for one night, though, a routine-looking play turned into the kind of mistake that could linger when it's all said and done.

Blue Jays fans have seen that kind of loss affect the long-term outcome before. Ironically, it's one that also came against the Tigers at Rogers Centre.

Five years ago, with the Blue Jays still chasing a postseason spot, Marcus Semien made one of the most uncharacteristic mistakes of his outstanding 2021 season against the Tigers. A routine ground ball to second base looked set to end the game, but Semien’s throw to first was short and Guerrero could not scoop it cleanly. The tying run scored, Detroit eventually won 5-3 in 11 innings, and that loss stood out when the Blue Jays missed the playoffs by one game.

Blue Jays experience a frustratingly similar defeat to Detroit from five years previous

The similarities between Semien's throw and Varland's drop are quite interesting. Both plays involved Guerrero at first base. Both came against the Tigers in Toronto. Both came in games where the Blue Jays were fighting to keep their postseason hopes from slipping away. And both involved players who had been among Toronto’s most valuable performers that season.

Semien went on to set the MLB record for home runs by a second baseman and finished third in American League MVP voting in 2021. Varland, meanwhile, has transformed into one of the most effective closers in the majors this year, making his late-game miscue feel like incredibly cruel timing from the baseball gods to show that he, in fact, isn't completely invincible.

The bigger issue, just like it was in 2021, is that the Blue Jays gave themselves too little margin for error. Toronto went just 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position on Monday night, wasting several chances to build a bigger lead before the game slipped away. In that 2021 loss to Detroit, the Blue Jays finished 1-for-17 with runners in scoring position, which made Semien’s error the headline moment but not the only reason they lost.

The Blue Jays did get one small break on Monday, though. Cleveland also lost, allowing Toronto to remain just one game back of the third American League Wild Card spot. That keeps the season very much alive, but it also makes nights like Monday harder to stomach, knowing that a win would've moved them into a tie - and allowed them to have control of that final playoff spot. They also would've actually been over .500 instead of sitting at 75-76.

In 2021, one loss to Detroit in August still loomed large when the Blue Jays finished one win short of October. This year’s team still has time to prevent Monday’s loss from becoming that kind of season-defining play again but time is running out.

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