Blue Jays should pursue Trevor Rogers if he declines Orioles' qualifying offer

The Toronto Blue Jays finished in the AL East basement last season, placing below the Baltimore Orioles, even though the O's played one less regular season game. The good news is that Toronto can turn the tables by nabbing one of the O's hurlers who is now a free agent.

Left-handed starting pitcher Trevor Rogers still has to determine if he will accept the qualifying offer (a one-year contract worth $23.15 million). The likeliest outcome is that he declines in search of a multi-year pact in free agency. In that case, the Blue Jays should offer him that deal to bring him north.

In MLB Trade Rumors' annual Top 50 free agent predictions article, Rogers is predicted to land a five-year, $115 million contract. Rogers is the second-best free agent in their rankings, behind only Tarik Skubal. They see Rogers similar to Ranger Suarez last offseason, who landed a five-year, $130 million deal with the Boston Red Sox last winter.

"He doesn’t quite have Suarez’s track record of durability, but he’s getting to market a year younger than Suarez did," wrote three of MLBTR's experts.

He was downright filthy in 2025, pitching to a pristine 1.81 ERA over 18 starts with a healthy 24.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. In 2026, Rogers recorded a 10-11 record, 4.03 ERA, 157 strikeouts, and 39 walks across 169.2 innings. However, a 22.5% strikeout rate and career-best 5.6% walk rate was nothing to sneeze at.

A 2021 All-Star, the soon-to-be 29-year-old has battled injuries and inconsistency during his career. Rogers was projected to front the Marlins rotation, but a combination of back, lat and biceps injuries felled him. The native of New Mexico has recorded a 34-48 record, 3.88 ERA, 678 strikeouts, and 234 walks across 689.2 career innings.

Tyler Rogers could be a very useful addition to the Blue Jays rotation

Rogers would give the Blue Jays a southpaw for their mostly right-handed rotation. While he's not as flashy as Michael King, Rogers is still in his prime without a ton of innings on his arm. It will be Pete Walker's project to uncover what the Marlins were betting on when they drafted him with the 13th pick of the first round in the 2017 draft.

The Blue Jays are on the prowl for upside in their rotation. Ironically, it feels like they have durability despite the plethora of injuries in 2026. Dylan Cease, José Soriano and Trey Yesavage feel like the kind of pitchers who can amass 25-30 games next season. Still, there is nothing wrong with picking the pathway that doubles down on the strength of their starting rotation. The inclusion of Rogers can raise the ceiling.

Rogers pitched better as the season wound down. He recorded a 3.52 ERA over his final 13 starts, including a much-needed renaissance after the calendar flipped to June. Over his final 20 games started, Rogers posted a 2.90 ERA, 2.89 FIP and 119 strikeouts in 121 innings. The Blue Jays will always thank him for letting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally hit a home run at the Rogers Centre!

Give the Blue Jays front office a ton of credit for the Kevin Gausman acquisition a few years ago. It feels like the front office brass really knows how to acquire pitching in free agency.

They need certainty behind the top three because of the questions surrounding Cody Ponce and José Berrios. If you can only sign a limited number of options, then Rogers is the guy they should be willing to take a gamble on.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow