Blue Jays should avoid rotation arm from AL East rival despite the potential upside

ByEric Treuden|
Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox | Winslow Townson/GettyImages

The Toronto Blue Jays have tried so hard and got so far, but in the end it hasn't...really amounted to anything of note. For the second offseason in a row, the Blue Jays have chased after the best available free agents and come away with next to nothing.

Last year, they pursued Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger only to come away with Kevin Kiermaier, Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Despite the fact that they missed out on Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki this time around, they were able to land Anthony Santander, Yimi Garcia and Jeff Hoffman. Better, for sure, but still not quite matching the expectations.

Now, Blue Jays fans have shifted their collective attention towards the likes of Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman and Max Scherzer. There's no doubt that any member of this trio would help the club out tremendously, but there's another name that's gained some steam in Toronto's rumor mill: Nick Pivetta. Unlike the other three names, Pivetta comes with risk that may not be worth the gamble.

The Blue Jays should avoid Nick Pivetta in free agency

For some reason, Blue Jays fans (and the industry as a whole) are always suckers for having a Canadian suit up for Canada's only big-league team. In a sentimental sense, it's nice to see, but sometimes it just doesn't make sense.

In this specific instance, Pivetta on the Blue Jays just doesn't make sense. The 31-year-old just wrapped up his fourth full year as a member of the division rival Boston Red Sox. He turned in another (just barely) above-average campaign, but there were still a few causes for concern.

The right-hander had a 103 ERA+, but he also finished with an ERA north of 4.00, which is something he's done in every single full season of his career dating back to his 2017 debut. Hit 4.07 FIP also doesn't exactly scream "upgrade" over the current starting rotation the Blue Jays are projected to trot out in the opening series of the 2025 season.

Pivetta turned himself into a strikeout machine in Boston, but he's known to be homer-prone and his H/9 rate went up a full hit from 2023 to 2024. All throughout his career, he's been the pure definition of "just okay", and has yet to put together a season that really makes him look like a star.

Granted, there aren't many people calling him a star this offseason, but he's certainly one of the best remaining starting pitchers on the market. However, Scherzer and his lengthy track record of success may be worth more on a single-year pact than Pivetta would be on the multi-year deal he's likely seeking (and the draft pick compensation attached to his arrival).

The one thing Pivetta provides that the Blue Jays could use in the upcoming season is innings, but nearly all of his numbers from the past few years point to the risk being higher than any potential reward.

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