One of the perceived strengths for the Toronto Blue Jays throughout the season has been the top-end of their starting rotation. While it has been rare to have all five guys going at the same time, there's also been plenty of examples throughout the year where any combination of the three starters could front a very capable rotation in a post-season series.
Blue Jays rotation shockingly perceived as one of the worst among playoff contenders
And maybe that's the crux of the issue as The Athletic ranked the Blue Jays as having the second worst rotation among the current 12 playoff contenders. The only team behind them being the San Diego Padres. The fact that Toronto has had a mix of three guys who "could" make up the top-end of the rotation throughout the season is clearly working against them in this scenario.
As The Athletic points out, the projected top three for the Blue Jays are Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Chris Bassitt. Combined they are projected to produce a 0.94 WAR and 3.91 ERA for the remainder of the season. Which are decent numbers considering they currently combine for a 5.65 WAR and 4.00 ERA.
Blue Jays pitchers with 9+ strikeouts and 0 walks in their debut: Shane Bieber. That's it. #lightsupletsgo pic.twitter.com/1pJtKrnQJs
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) August 23, 2025
Those numbers are also better than a few other teams. They have a higher projected WAR than the Chicago Cubs, listed at number 10. They have a current higher WAR than the New York Mets who rank ninth, and their current ERA is better than the Seattle Mariners listed at number five. But what The Athletic knocks them down for is that Gausman, Bieber and Bassitt might not be the Jays top three once the playoffs begin and they don't know who exactly to trust among the rest of the group.
The write up says, "For a team with such a great record and plus-plus vibes, there are also some concerns in Toronto. The more obvious one isin the bullpen, which has blown the second-most saves in baseball over the last two weeks and sports an ERA over 5.00 in that time frame. But their rotation hasn’t been above the fold in months, either, with José Berríos approaching a 5.00 ERA in the second half and Chris Bassit good for a blowup every five starts or so."
The Hound held his own 👊
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) July 24, 2025
Another win for Bassitt means another $10K donated for kids in@JaysCare programs!
Pitch in and show your support at: https://t.co/BACsQRVmVf pic.twitter.com/JUZuV7UqmU
The write up continues by stating, "Are the projections that put the Jays in the bottom three off? Is this veteran trio at the top (with the second-worst ERA to date and third-worst WAR to date) better than it seems? Could be. That’s on Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber (and his new kick-change!) to prove."
For the Blue Jays rotation, it really be a sprint to the finish, not just to secure a division title, but from within the internal competition of who gets those coveted post-season starts. Surely Bieber has the inside track as he's the trade deadline acquisition and the Blue Jays didn't bring him in to watch the playoffs from the bench.
Max Scherzer was seemingly on his way to putting himself in that conversation with a dominant month of August, but his last two outings against Cincinnati and New York have had mixed results. While he left the game against the Reds early due to back tightness, he was also just fine in his outing against New York - and sometimes, just fine isn't good enough in the post-season. The Blue Jays also have the option of having Eric Lauer come in for a start if they are going up against an opponent who hasn't fared well against left-handers this season.
Regardless of how The Athletic has ranked the Blue Jays, Toronto could do themselves a huge favour by locking down the division and getting everyone some rest and lining up the rotation the way they want if they can secure that first-round bye.
