Blue Jays’ RISP collapse is undoing the formula that worked last season

72 games into the regular season and the Toronto Blue Jays may still be trying to find their identity. Or maybe they have found it and it is nothing that resembles the identity of the team that won the American League pennant just one year ago. The 2026 version of the Blue Jays, at times, feels a lot like the Blue Jays of 2025.

They pitch relatively well, when healthy. They have guys that can hit, and sport a lineup that is supported by a bevy of bats that are above league average in terms of contact rates and OPS+. But they are failing to score and come up clutch in the biggest moments. And while last years team also struggled with that through the first few weeks of the season, it was around this time last year when things started to change.

On Jun. 15 2025, the Blue Jays were ranked sixth in MLB in terms of their production with Runners in Scoring Position. They were slashing .254/.323/.395 with a 101 wRC+. Not great numbers, but considering those numbers were up since the end of May, the positive progression was noticeable. On May 25, 2025, the team was slashing .246/.318/.374 with a wRC+ of 95, and were ranked 18th in the league. Over the following two weeks that was up to a 118 wRC+ while they an OPS of .786, third best in the league.

After the series with the New York Yankees that just played out at Rogers Centre this past weekend, the Blue Jays continued to be mired in their subpar performance with RISP. The Blue Jays have a .703 OPS (22nd overall) while slashing .250/.315/.388. and a wRC+ of 96. It doesn't feel like a far drop from the numbers they had at this point last season, but again it's all in the timing of when they are cashing in those runs and with what kind of regularity they are able to do it.

For example, on Saturday (Jun. 13) the Blue Jays went 1-for-10 with RISP and left 10 men on base in a 3-1 loss. Those bring those numbers way down and adds to the fact that they have a .728 OPS (16th in the league) in high leverage situations.

Overall the Blue Jays continue to find themselves in the bottom third of the league in batting average (25th), slugging (29th) OPS (30th) and batting average with two outs (27th). These are the prime situations the Blue Jays need to come through in, if they want to make a run.

A few keys seem obvious for the Blue Jays to turn around their woeful RISP production

If the Blue Jays are going to get this ship steered in the right direction, it may come down to the foursome of Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and George Springer leading the charge. So far in 2026, this group has gone 24-for-113 with RISP a .212 average, with no home runs.

While Barger has only appeared in six games, and Kirk in seven, the games they have missed have arguably led to the lack of production the team as a whole has suffered in these situations. Last year, this group hit .311 (155-for-498) with 18 home runs in these spots. With Kirk now back, there's potential for the Blue Jays to see those numbers start to trend in the right direction, and that will hopefully be aided with Barger's eventual return as well.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow