Blue Jays' reliever is outperforming everyone on the WPA chart, including Mason Miller

It's no secret that Louis Varland has been the Toronto Blue Jays' saving grace in the bullpen this year. He's locked down five saves since moving into the closer's role, though more importantly, he's allowed just one earned run in 24.2 innings (0.36 ERA) while striking out 35.7% of the hitters he faces (going into May 20).

Those contributions have earned him 1.1 fWAR, which is the second-best total in the league among all relievers. He trails only Mason Miller, who is literally in the midst of one of the greatest stretches of pitching in baseball history.

That's pretty elite company to find yourslef in these days, but Varland isn't just a member of the elites; according to Win Probability Added (WPA), he's in a class of his own.

Louis Varland has been even better than advertised as Blue Jays' closer

WPA isn't a complicated stat. All it really tries to explain is a player's impact on the probability of their team winning. A figure of +1 WPA means that the player has effectively added one win to his team's ledger; a -1 mark indicates that they've cost their team a game.

As such, WPA does tend to favor high-leverage relievers, since they're so frequently pitching in close games that can be decided by one at-bat. In that sense, Varland has an advantage over others. And yet, that shouldn't diminish the fact that his 2.1 WPA this year not only paces the entire league, but puts him on track for the best pitching season since Emmanuel Clase in 2024, when the (now-disgraced) Cleveland Guardians reliever nearly won a Cy Young Award.

The last Blue Jays pitcher to win the WPA crown in the American League was Jordan Romano in 2021 (3.8 WPA); the last one to lead the entire league was Roger Clemens in 1997 (7.1 WPA). Like I said, Varland is part of some pretty elite company right now.

And the best part is that he's been consistent all year long. Save for a three-hit performance against the Guardians in late-April, Varland hasn't allowed an earned run all year. Take that outing out of the equation, and he's only surrendered 16 hits and eight walks in 23.2 innings pitched.

He may not be flashing quite the same dominance as Miller -- almost no one in history ever has -- but Varland is, by almost any metric, is one of the two or three best relievers in the sport in 2026. Given all of the injuries that have decimated the Blue Jays' pitching staff, his presence is borderline invaluable.

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