Blue Jays pitching prospect, Nolan Perry, validates breakout label after huge 2026 season

A "breakout" can be classified in different ways. It can be a player who struggled in the past that is having a bounce back or finally elevating their game. It also applies to someone who had little to no expectation coming into the season that has become a significant contributor.

MLB.com recently selected one player from each organization as their breakout pick for the season. Some notable names that were selected are: Caden Hunter, Alberta native Eric Hartman, Josiah Hartshorn, and Murf Gray. The Blue Jays breakout prospect for 2026 is Nolan Perry, and for good reason.

Perry, a New Mexico native, attended Carlsbad High School and was drafted in the 12th round of the 2022 MLB Draft by the Blue Jays. Perry had committed to Texas Tech, but the Blue Jays signed him for $200,000 to forego his commitment.

Perry features a four-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, slider, splitter. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Perry's pitches went up in velocity. According to MLB Pipeline, his fastball averages 94 mph, his slider averages in the mid-80s, his curveball averages 78-81 mph, and he throws his splitter in the mid-80s.

Perry did not make his professional debut until the 2023 season. Perry was assigned to the FCL in his first season and it was not a good one. In 38.1 innings pitched, Perry had a 7.28 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. On the surface, the numbers did not look good for Perry, but there was room for optimism.

Though opposing hitters hit .284 off Perry, his .393 BABIP indicated that some of the contact he allowed were falling for hits when they normally would not. He even showed an ability to strike out hitters while limiting walks as his 19.4 K-BB% ranked seventh among FCL pitchers (min. 30 innings). His 51.4% left on base percentage and 4.05 FIP shows us that Perry was unlucky with allowing runs.

After a rough debut season, Perry was sent to Low-A Dunedin in 2024. In an injury-shortened 2024, Perry pitched slightly better. In 14 games, Perry had a 2.93 ERA albeit with a 1.61 WHIP over 46 innings while recording 57 strikeouts. Perry would need Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of 2024 and all of 2025.

When he was healthy, Perry looked better. Opposing hitters only hit .210 off Perry and his 76.2% left on base percentage was much improved compared to the year before. There were several red flags to his season, however. His walk rate doubled from 8.9% in 2023 to 18.8% in 2024 and his .306 BABIP was around league average.

Perry looked like a new person in 2026. He was sent to Low-A to begin the season and once again looked amazing at that level. In five games, Perry had a 1.71 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in 21 innings and 32 strikeouts. Perry's 33.3 K-BB% was third among pitchers (min. 20 IP) only behind Pirates top pitching prospect Seth Hernandez (41.3%), and Charlie Christensen (33.6%) of the Detroit Tigers.

He was promoted to High-A after and looked solid although not as dominant. In seven games, Perry had a 3.23 ERA and 1.24 WHIP through 30.2 innings with 46 strikeouts. His 27.8 K-BB% at High-A ranked second among Northwest League pitchers (min. 30 IP).

Perry showed enough to get a promotion to Double-A and he looked good there. In nine games, Perry had a 2.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 31 innings to go with 39 strikeouts. Although the walks went up, Perry still managed to generate a lot of strikeouts. His 32.2% strikeout rate ranks top-20 among Eastern League pitchers (min. 30 IP).

Is Nolan Perry on the path to a promotion to the big leagues by 2027?

Perry was deserving of the breakout pick as after missing 2025 recovering from Tommy John, Perry used the extra time to get stronger and improve. The results showed and Perry even made an appearance at the Futures Game during All-Star week.

Perry will need to continue to develop the control as he saw his walk rate increase with each level he went up. Developing his splitter will also be pivotal in order to stick as a starter. If Perry can put all those pieces together, he has a bright future in the Blue Jays rotation.

Perry is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and with how he performed in 2026, Perry is guaranteed to be added to the 40-man roster.

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