Blue Jays' pitcher's rehab going according to plan, but timeline still up in the air

The most recent update from Dunedin is a classic 'good news/bad news' scenario as Toronto Blue Jays' skipper John Schneider confirmed that Shane Bieber progressed to throwing at 120 feet on flat ground as he deals with right forearm fatigue. While he has moved up from the 90-foot mark he began camp at, the most telling part of the update is what has yet to happen - Bieber has not thrown off a mound.

As Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reported, the Jays appear to be sticking to a specific progression plan with an official timeline is still undetermined. Understandably so, the Blue Jays look like they'll take their time with Bieber and ensure he is 100% healthy before having him join the big league squad. Fans should anticipate Bieber will start on the injured list with a potential (albeit optimistic) return by May assuming no setbacks in his rehab or ramp-up.

To understand why the Blue Jays are being so cautious, we have to take a look at Bieber's 2025 season.

Blue Jays' pitcher's rehab going according to plan, but timeline still up in the air

Looking Back

Acquired from Cleveland for pitching prospect Khal Stephen at the 2025 trade deadline, he became Toronto's headline postseason-push addition. Still recovering from Tommy John surgery at the time of the deal, he didn't debut until August 22nd.

On August 22nd, Bieber returned to the bump for the first time in 16 months and put on an impressive performance that exceeded initial expectations. Over six innings of work, he allowed only two hits, one earned run, and surrendered no walks while striking out nine. What followed was a whirlwind; he made 6 more starts after that and pitched to a 3.57 ERA over 40.1 regular season innings.

When the postseason came along, it was his time to shine - the main reason the Blue Jays traded for him in the first place - another big-time arm to pair with a veteran pitching staff headed by ace Kevin Gausman, clubhouse leaders and intense competitors Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer, along with young phenom Trey Yesavage. Bieber ended up making five appearances in the postseason, and unfortunately gave up the homerun to Los Angeles Dodgers' catcher Will Smith in the 11th inning of Game 7 of the World Series which sealed their fate.

After such a high-intensity workload immediately following elbow surgery, Bieber opted to exercise his $16-million player option for the 2026 season. A surprise to many - it may be as simple as Bieber taking a chance on himself and trying to earn a big payday heading into free agency after the 2026 season with a potential 2027 lockout looming. Or perhaps it signaled a mutual desire to take care of unfinished business with the squad that got him deeper into the playoffs than he's ever been.

Looking Ahead

When Bieber does return, he won't be asked to carry the staff. In fact, this is likely a driving factor as to why the Blue Jays are quite comfortable with him not being ready for Opening Day. With the pitching depth they have right now, it would be a disservice to try to rush Bieber's progression and contribute to his injury potential with how many capable arms are currently in the system.

Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease are the no-brainer No. 1 and No. 2 arms in the rotation. KBO sign-in Cody Ponce, veteran José Berrios, rookie Yesavage, and 2025 lefty swingman savior Eric Lauer all project to contribute substantial innings.

The aforementioned doesn't even include the recently re-signed future hall-of-famer Scherzer, or minor league depth pieces in Ricky Tiedemann, Adam Macko, Gage Stanifer, CJ Van Eyk, and Grant Rogers to list a few.

Clearly, Toronto is well-positioned to cover those innings in Bieber's absence. Potentially upon his return, there may be some leeway - or even required corresponding 40-man moves - to make deals out of some of their depth which would surely be attractive to certain teams.

Consolidation

Ultimately, the Blue Jays aren't worried about building the best rotation for March/April, their focus is really building one for October. A fresh Bieber in May and onward is obviously more valuable than a fatigued Bieber come September.

As Bieber put it himself earlier in camp, "It's not about how you start, it's about how you finish." And for Toronto, that finish line represents another deep run into fall - one where they come out on top.