Blue Jays pass on obvious waiver wire upgrade as Orioles get better instead

The Blue Jays are running out of time to find marginal upgrades, which makes their apparent decision to pass on Luis Robert Jr. a bit confusing.

At this point in the season, players will come up on the waiver wire every so often that aren't going to solve every problem a team is facing, but once in a while, there is a player worth taking a chance on. Robert certainly fits that description. He has not had a strong season overall, but he also looked like the exact kind of player Toronto could have justified gambling on for a September push.

Instead, the Baltimore Orioles are claiming Robert off waivers from the Mets, according to league sources, giving one of Toronto’s direct competitors for an American League wild-card spot a potentially useful upgrade while the Blue Jays continue to lean on a thinner outfield mix.

That is the part that stings. The Orioles were reportedly just behind the Blue Jays in the claim queue for Robert, which means Toronto had the opportunity to block the move and add the player itself. The Blue Jays did not submit the claim, and Baltimore did. It's the second time within a week there was a player on waivers that could have upgraded Toronto's offense. The Reds put Eugenio Suárez on waivers, but the Blue Jays also passed on him.

Similar to Suárez, Robert is not being claimed based on his full-season line. The former All-Star has hit just .223/.303/.399 with a .702 OPS and 96 wRC+ this season, along with 10 home runs, 23 RBI, 23 walks and 53 strikeouts. His .250 BABIP does not exactly scream bad luck, either.

But there is enough present value to help right now. With Suárez it was all about his potential power impact. He has 19 home runs this season, which would've ranked second most on the Blue Jays. In Robert’s case, he brings speed, ranking in the 89th percentile, and he still has an above-average arm, ranking in the 74th percentile in arm value. For a Blue Jays team cycling through outfield options and looking for any edge, that alone should have made the conversation interesting.

Then there is the recent offensive trend. In August, Robert has hit .267/.321/.520 with six home runs and a 128 wRC+. That mark is better than every Blue Jays' hitter this month except Alejandro Kirk and George Springer, with Brett Batemen right behind at 127. Compared to the players he would have been fighting for outfield at-bats — Myles Straw, Daz Cameron and Jesús Sánchez — Robert’s recent production looks like a clear upgrade.

The financial piece has been brought up but for roughly $3 million, that should have barely been considered a factor, especially for a player with Robert’s potential impact.

Blue Jays pass on Luis Robert Jr. feels worse considering where he landed

This always felt like a take-it-or-leave-it situation for the Blue Jays. If they were willing to take it, maybe Robert stays hot, covers ground in the outfield, punishes left-handed pitching and gives Toronto one more player capable of changing a game. If they were not, they were essentially betting that their current group had enough left to get them over the finish line.

The danger is where Robert landed. Getting claimed by Baltimore, a division rival and direct wild-card competitor, the Orioles now get a better right-handed-hitting center-field option for a group that has been handled mostly by lefty-hitting Colton Cowser and switch-hitter Leody Taveras. Cowser has had a strong month, hitting .290 with an .899 OPS and 148 wRC+ in 24 games, but Taveras has struggled over that same general stretch with a .227 average, .670 OPS and 85 wRC+ in 26 games.

That makes Robert a potential swing piece in a race where the margins are already thin. The Blue Jays entered the week at 68-70, sitting 1.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the final American League wild-card spot, with a three-game series in Cleveland beginning Tuesday. The Orioles, meanwhile, were 68-69 and just one game back of Cleveland.

At this time of year, teams fighting for October do not get many easy chances to improve. Robert may have been imperfect, but he is also heating up at just the right moment for the Orioles to reap all the rewards.

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