Blue Jays’ José Soriano trade may be following the José Berrios playbook

The Toronto Blue Jays pulled off, arguably, the most shocking deal of the trade deadline. They acquired 27-year-old right-hander José Soriano from the LA Angles for a package of prospects that was headlined by Blue Jays' No. 2 prospect Arjun Nimmala.

It was a shock considering the Blue Jays had just moved Kevin Gausman to the Chicago Cubs, basically signalling they were selling at the deadline. However, with Gausman an impending free agent, the Blue Jays felt they had to get some kind of a return for him. But as Arden Zwelling pointed out on the At the Letters podcast - the acquisition of Soriano is a deal the Blue Jays couldn't pass up on.

“I think this deal says that the Blue Jays really believe in their pitching department and their ability to help Soriano get better,” Zwelling said. “I think it says that when the Blue Jays see an opportunity like this, they are going to be aggressive in going after it and willing to take risks.”

That risk, in dealing away a top prospect like Nimmala, is something that raised eyebrows. But it didn't come without precedent. The Blue Jays once traded Austin Martin, a former first-round pick and one of the organization’s most recognizable prospects at the time, to acquire José Berrios from the Minnesota Twins at the 2021 trade deadline.

Zwelling made that connection, noting that the Blue Jays have shown they are “more than willing to trade first-round picks for controllable pieces.” But that is not the only connection here. Zwelling says the Blue Jays could have an eye on keeping Soriano around for longer than his current contract commands.

“I think this also says the Blue Jays, and I’m going out on a limb here, they see Soriano as an extension candidate, much like they did with Berrios,” Zwelling said. “Because when they acquired him, they had it in their mind that they were going to extend him when they got him from the Twins.”

The Blue Jays signed Berrios after the 2021 season to a seven-year, $131 million extension. Soriano may not command as high of a salary. He is currently earning $2.9 million in arbitration this season, and while he is positioned for raises over the next two years, his arbitration figures are still likely to remain modest compared to what a pitcher with his raw ability could command on the open market. That creates a potential middle ground for both sides.

The Blue Jays could offer Soriano real guaranteed money through his final arbitration seasons while buying out a year or two of free agency. For Soriano, that would mean having some financial security before reaching the open market.

Zwelling says, "Maybe that structure looks like a four-year extension with a club option. Maybe it includes escalators tied to workload, innings pitched, strikeouts, awards or other performance markers." The exact framework is impossible to know right now, considering he has yet to throw a pitch for the Blue Jays, ,but the concept is there and they may want to get ahead of that value now.

Blue Jays can help José Soriano in the same way they helped Dylan Cease

While Zwelling compared the contract and off-field story to Berrios, on the field, Soriano is being compared to a different member of the Blue Jays. Right now, Soriano looks more like the pitcher that Dylan Cease used to be before he came over to Toronto.

Cease, who just won the American League Pitcher of the Month award for July, has really reigned in his control issues in his first season with Toronto. Following the signing of a massive seven-year, $210-million deal, Cease has been worth every penny so far. He's raised his K/9 rate to 13.12 (from 11.52 last season), he's giving up less home runs per nine innings (0.53, a career best) and his 2.30 FIP is also the best of his career.

Soriano has some tantalizing pitches and the Blue Jays are hoping they can reign in some of his walk issues, and turn those into better chase and whiff rates. His 3.29 ERA, 3.79 FIP and 24.9% strikeout rate and .216 batting average against are great numbers. But the Blue Jays think there is another level Soriano can reach, and that should be enough to excite plenty of Blue Jays fans. Even the ones who are skeptical about trading Nimmala.

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