Blue Jays fan favourite projected to be just as valuable as Vlad Jr. next season

Over the last couple of seasons Alejandro Kirk has steadily climbed the ranks among MLB backstops. The Toronto Blue Jays catcher really established himself in 2022 with an All-Star campaign in which he hit .285/.372/.415 with 14 home runs and producing a 4.7 fWAR season.

Since 2023 Kirk has been worth 9.7 fWAR, the fifth best fWAR among catchers in the league over that time. He's produced a 103 wRC+ and a 62.5 defensive fWAR and according to FanGraphs they see no signs in Kirk slowing down in 2026. In fact, they project him to be just as valuable to the club as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. during the upcoming campaign.

Blue Jays fan favourite projected to be just as valuable as Vlad Jr. next season

Kirk and Guerrero are both projected to finish the year with 4.9 fWAR's this season. Although they see them getting there in very different fashions. While FanGraphs sees Vladdy being worth 38.0 offensive fWAR his defensive projection of -13.6 brings down those evaluations. For Kirk his offense will be worth 8.1 fWAR and his defense at 14.6.

FanGraphs also projects Guerrero and Kirk to have similar walk to strikeout rates. Kirk is projected to have a 10.2% walk rate compared to Vladdy's 11.4%. Meanwhile, they expect both players to maintain their low strikeout numbers from 2025 with Kirk at a 12.1% K-rate projection and Vladdy at 13.6%.

Rounding out the numbers, Kirk is expected to produce a 117 wRC+ with a slash line of .273/.350/.423 over 125 with 15 home runs. Guerrero is expected to produce a 149 wRC+ with a slash line of .295/.380/.522 with 34 home runs in 157 games.

125 games seems like a good estimate for Kirk who played in 130 last year, the second highest of his career after 139 in 2022. But as we saw last year, Kirk seemed to slow down a bit toward the end of the season, before breaking out again right before the playoffs and he maintained that hot hand once the postseason began. It will be important for manager John Schneider to be strategic in how he utilizes Kirk. You don't want to over play him at one of the most demanding positions on the field, but you also want him in the lineup if he's on a roll.

Meantime, Guerrero, will be on the field for as many games as he can be, and if the last seven years are any indication, he expects to be in the lineup every day. He played in 156 games last season which ties his lowest in a single season since his debut in 2019. He's never played in a full 162, but he's never played less than that 156 and that just speaks to his durability and his ability to stay healthy. He is the epitome of a gamer, day in and day out and with Bo Bichette no longer with the Blue Jays, Vladdy is truly the face of the franchise.

It's very interesting and poignant that the two players who have been given the most recent extensions by the Blue Jays front office are expected to be the top producers on the team in 2026. With Kirk signed through 2030 and Vladdy signed until the end of time (more or less) these are the guys who should be driving the bus.