Blue Jays could pursue Clay Holmes, but their defence might work against him

The Toronto Blue Jays’ search for pitching help this winter will likely take them to all corners of the free agent market, from Tarik Skubal to the Japanese arms coming to MLB. 

This current front office led by general manager Ross Atkins always casts a wide net and will likely have conversations about Clay Holmes. The former New York Yankees closer has been rock solid since becoming a full-time starting pitcher in 2025.

The problem is Holmes is a candidate for regression moving forward. If the Blue Jays decide to pursue him, they need to be realistic about what they’re getting. 

Injuries limited Holmes to just 18 starts in 2026, but the 101.1 innings he threw when healthy were some of the best of his career. He recorded a 3.29 ERA (126 ERA+) while doing an excellent job of keeping the ball in the ballpark (0.5 HR/9). 

The first warning sign that Holmes might not repeat this performance is his second-half numbers after being traded from the New York Mets to the Chicago Cubs. His ERA was 4.25 with them down the stretch while his WHIP (1.295) and FIP (4.09) both rose into less impressive territory. 

A move from the dreadful Mets to the Cubs—arguably the best defensive team in all of baseball—should have been a catalyst for even better results given Holmes’ pitch-to-contact tendencies. Instead, he regressed into an average pitcher. What gives? 

Holmes’ underlying metrics offer some clues. The two things he does extremely well are limiting barrels and inducing groundballs. He was elite in both of these categories in 2026, but didn’t do much else to write home about. His 10% walk rate ranked in just the 29th percentile, while his K-rate landed in the bottom quarter of the league at 18.6%. 

What this all suggests is that Holmes’ success is extremely dependent on batted ball outcomes that he can’t control. What happens if a few more groundballs squeak through the infield instead of finding the gloves of his teammates? His numbers could look a whole different with just a bit of bad luck. 

Why the Blue Jays' defence is a problem for Clay Holmes

This is extremely relevant when discussing the Blue Jays given their poor defensive play in 2026. Andrés Giménez was elite at shortstop and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. probably deserved to win the Gold Glove at first base, but Kazuma Okamoto and Ernie Clement were subpar at third and second base, respectively. This team isn’t built to bail out pitchers as currently constructed. 

All of this isn’t to say that Holmes couldn’t be a good addition at the right price. Rather, it’s an argument against the Blue Jays paying Holmes big money expecting him to record an ERA in the low-3.00s.

He would probably be more of a 4.00 ERA guy in Toronto, which could still be extremely useful if his contract reflects that. There are just other options with much higher upsdide out there. 

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