Blue Jays can take a few Rule 5 Draft risks with lockout looming

Part of figuring out their roster this offseason will include determining which risks the Toronto Blue Jays can take in regard to the annual Rule 5 Draft.

The annual draft, slated for Dec. 9, gives teams a chance to select minor-league players from other MLB organizations who are not on any 40-man rosters. It's designed to give players who are held back in some organizations a chance to reach the majors with another team. But there is a wrinkle with this year's draft in the form of an expected MLB lockout.

To avoid exposing eligible players to the Rule 5 Draft, teams must add players to their 40-man roster by Nov. 17. Problem is, that's about two weeks before the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires and a potential lockout takes effect. That means no MLB player on a 40-man roster can use team facilities or resources while the lockout is in effect.

Teams may be tempted to leave certain players off the roster (and therefore unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft), so they can still use the organization's resources and even play in games if the lockout were to stretch into the spring and later. Minor League Baseball would be unaffected by any MLB lockout.

Josh Kasevich, Nolan Perry locks to be added to Blue Jays roster regardless of lockout

The Blue Jays have a number of players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Two players who absolutely should be added to Toronto's roster regardless of a lockout are infielder Josh Kasevich and pitcher Nolan Perry.

Kasevich was the Most Valuable Player for Toronto's Triple-A affiliate, the Buffalo Bisons in 2026, when he slashed .282/.364/.363 with a .727 OPS and provided strong defense. Perry posted a 2.50 ERA and a 36 percent strikeout rate over 82.2 innings in Double-A New Hampshire after returning from Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays need to protect both, as they would likely be taken in the Rule 5 Draft. It's too much of a gamble to not protect them.

Kasevich (13) and Perry (2) are ranked by MLB.com Pipeline among the Blue Jays' top 30 prospects. Other top prospects who are Rule 5 eligible include pitchers Gage Stanifer (9) and Daniel Guerra (15), outfielders RJ Schreck (12) and Victor Arias (24), and utilityman Jay Harry (21).

Other notable eligible players include outfielders Nick Goodwin and Jace Bohrofen, infielders Tucker Toman and Peyton Williams, and pitchers Brandon Barriera and Yondrei Rojas. Rojas and Barriera are trying to help their cause with strong performances in the Arizona Fall League.

It may end up being pointless to burn a roster spot on a newly-added player, since the Rule 5 Draft would be canceled or there wouldn't be any MLB games until the lockout has ended. A similar situation happened in the 2021-2022 MLB lockout, when that off-season's Rule 5 Draft was canceled. But that lockout stretched into Spring Training in March 2022, which means a Rule 5 Draft could be rescheduled if any lockout ended during this offseason.

And that means if there is a rescheduled draft, a team could still lose a highly-regarded prospect if that player isn't on the roster. So, teams will have to be careful about who they add or don't add to their rosters. Teams will have to take a few risks.

The Blue Jays could risk leaving certain players unprotected, such as Arias and Bohrofen, who could use some more time in the minors. Schreck missed a lot of the season due to injury, so a Rule 5 selection would be unlikely for him.

Toman and Williams could probably be risked by being kept off the roster, although Williams hits for a ton of power. Barriera's got the stuff, but he has struggled to stay on the field. These guys could use more time in the minors and sneak past the Rule 5 Draft, if it is held this season.

There's a few players who are certainly risks to be drafted, but would benefit from either more time in the minors or at least playing during a lockout. Harry jumped all the way to Triple A in 2025, hitting 14 home runs and slashing .298/.343/.495. Goodwin posted an .827 OPS, while Guerra owned a 3.33 ERA and 32.3 percent strikeout rate.

Stanifer threw over 100 innings between Double A and Triple A. Both Guerra and Stanifer could be the next Spencer Miles, just for another team. Or they could continue to improve as they pitch in Triple A while the majors are in lockout mode.

Toronto is already facing a roster crunch anyway, with as many as seven players on the 60-day Injured List and currently 37 players on the roster. The offseason plans are pretty clear, as the Blue Jays want to add power and more offense, so roster space is going to be important.

Players are eligible for the majors Rule 5 Draft if they signed at 18 years of age and have five years of professional baseball experience, or if they signed at 19 and have four years in pro ball. College players taken in the 2023 MLB Draft and amateur free agents who signed in 2022 are also eligible.

The draft order is set by reverse order of 2025 record and a team can pass without making a pick when their turn is up. The draft ends once all 30 MLB teams pass on a selection.

The Rule 5 Draft has a minor-league phase that focuses on drafting players in the lower minors for a MLB organization's Triple-A team. The minor-league phase works like the major-league Rule 5 Draft, but will be held regardless of the lockout.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow