Blue Jays can’t let qualifying-offer penalties scare them off some of these targets

Nothing complicates a player’s free agent market quite like receiving a qualifying offer from their current team. 

Most players decline the one-year deal, the value of which rose to a record $23.15 million for this round of tenders. When they do, it means whichever organization signs them has to incur draft pick and/or international bonus pool penalties. 

These penalties are steepest for the high-spending teams that operate in the luxury tax like the Toronto Blue Jays. With that in mind, they have to be absolutely sure whoever they sign is worth paying this extra price. 

Here’s a round-up of every player likely to get the qualifying offer and whether it should matter to the Blue Jays this winter. 

Some free agents may not be worth the risk of a qualifying offer penatly for the Blue Jays

Ryan Jeffers 

The Blue Jays are already set at catcher with Alejandro Kirk and Brandon Valenzuela. While Jeffers is a good hitter who could theoretically slot in as their designated hitter in 2027, signing him wouldn’t make much sense given all the other options. 

David Bednar

The answer here might be different if the Blue Jays didn’t already have a star closer in Louis Varland. Bednar is a great fit if the front office wants to build a super bullpen like the Milwaukee Brewers, but they would be better off soaking the penalties on a bat. 

Depends on the Contract

Trevor Rogers

Rogers would be a great addition to the Blue Jays’ rotation as a left-hander with upside. Whether or not they should sign him will ultimately come down to his contract. The penalty could be worth it if they can agree to a somewhat team-friendly deal. 

Adrian Morejon

Morejon lands in this tier over Bednar because there are rumblings he could be turned into a starter pitcher. His age and versatility make him inherently more valuable—he could be worth it on the right contract. 

Randy Arozarena

Arozarena was fantastic at the plate in 2026 and would be a perfect fit in left field for the Blue Jays. If we’re talking about a four-year deal in the range of $80 million, he’s absolutely worth accepting the penalties. If the bidding gets too competitive, however, it might make more sense for the Blue Jays to look elsewhere for offence. 

It Shouldn’t Matter

Seiya Suzuki

Suzuki is the best and most consistent hitter available in free agency. He’s exactly the kind of right-handed bat the Blue Jays desperately need, and he improved defensively in 2026 to further boost his value. They should be all-in on him this winter with zero regard for whether he received a qualifying offer. 

Brandon Lowe

Lowe is one of the most underrated hitters in the game. He’s a rare source of power at second base who likely won’t get a massive deal given he’s already 32. If the price is right on the contract, the Blue Jays should pull the trigger without hesitation to improve on their underwhelming middle infield. 

Ultimately, the Blue Jays should treat a qualifying offer as part of the price, and not an automatic reason to walk away from a player that could significantly upgrade their lineup. Losing draft picks and international bonus pool money is a justifiable price on the right contract.

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